May 09, 2007

Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room

This is just too long to publish on here

in full. So take the time to look at it.  Plenty of food for thought.

V





Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot:

Population, the Elephant in the Room

Posted by Stoneleigh on May 7, 2007 - 9:25am

Topic: Environment/Sustainability

Tags: carrying capacity, overshoot, peak oil, population, sustainability



From The Oil Drum: Discussion about Energy and Our Future





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This is a guest post by GliderGuider.



At
the root of all the converging crises of the World Problematique is the
issue of human overpopulation. Each of the global problems we face
today is the result of too many people using too much of our planet's
finite, non-renewable resources and filling its waste repositories of
land, water and air to overflowing. The true danger posed by our
exploding population is not our absolute numbers but the inability of
our environment to cope with so many of us doing what we do.
It
is becoming clearer every day, as crises like global warming, water,
soil and food depletion, biodiversity loss and the degradation of our
oceans constantly worsen, that the human situation is not sustainable.
Bringing about a sustainable balance between ourselves and the planet
we depend on will require us, in very short order, to reduce our
population, our level of activity, or both. One of the questions that
comes up repeatedly in discussions of population is, "What level of
human population is sustainable?" In this article I will give my
analysis of that question, and offer a look at the human road map from
our current situation to that level.



As I have mentioned elsewhere,
the concepts of ecological science are the most effective tools for
understanding this situation. The crucial concepts are sustainability,
carrying capacity and overshoot. Considered together these can give us
some clue as to what the true sustainable population of the earth might
be, as well as the trajectory between our current numbers and the point
of sustainability.



Also covered:


Sustainability

Carrying Capacity

The Role of Oil

The Food Factor

Carrying Capacity

And Image of Overshoot

Peak Oil

Time Frame and Severity

Maintaining Our Carrying Capacity

Conclusion

A Simple Model of Population Decline

The Cost

Summation



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