Showing posts with label food prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label food prices. Show all posts

May 15, 2008

As Britain declines, food prices go WAY up

Family budgets set to rise again as production costs climb at fastest pace for more than 20 years

Last updated at 16:15pm on 12th May 2008

Comments Comments (56)

woman shopping

Soaring food prices have sent household bills rocketing

Factory gate prices surged at their fastest pace since records began more than 20 years ago during April, official figures showed today.

Soaring petrol costs, Budget tax hikes on alcohol and tobacco as well as rising steel scrap prices pushed up output prices 1.4 per cent between March and April, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is the highest monthly increase since records began in 1986 - likely to fuel inflation concerns among Bank of England policymakers and jolt hopes of interest rate cuts.

The price hikes lifted the annual rate of increase to 7.5 per cent in the 12 months to April - also a record - as surging food product costs added to the pressure.

Most economists expect rates to fall to 4.75 per cent next month, but the gloomy figures add to fears that the Bank's hands will be tied by its inflation-watching mandate.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist with Global Insight, said: "This raises serious questions as to whether the Bank will be willing to cut interest rates as soon as June despite current signs that the economic downturn may be deepening and widening."

Meanwhile, millions of families are having to spend almost £1,000 a year extra on food after more punishing price rises.

The annual increase in the price of a basket of essentials surged to 19.1 per cent in May, according to the Daily Mail Cost of Living Index.

The rate has jumped alarmingly from 15.5 per cent in April – a 3.6 per cent rise – and there is no sign of the pressure easing.

And Factory gate prices surged at their fastest pace since records began more than 20 years ago during April, official figures showed today.

Soaring petrol costs, Budget tax hikes on alcohol and tobacco as well as rising steel scrap prices pushed up output prices 1.4 per cent between March and April, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is the highest monthly increase since records began in 1986 - likely to fuel inflation concerns among Bank of England policymakers and jolt hopes of interest rate cuts.

The price hikes lifted the annual rate of increase to 7.5 per cent in the 12 months to April - also a record - as surging food product costs added to the pressure.

Most economists expect rates to fall to 4.75 per cent next month, but the gloomy figures add to fears that the Bank's hands will be tied by its inflation-watching mandate.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist with Global Insight, said: "This raises serious questions as to whether the Bank will be willing to cut interest rates as soon as June despite current signs that the economic downturn may be deepening and widening."

There is now a worldwide crisis over supplies of key crops such as corn, wheat and rice. It has triggered food riots in some countries. And in the UK it has brought the biggest rises in bills in a generation.

A family which spent £100 a week on food last year now has to find another £19.10 for the same products, equivalent to £993 a year. Once "must-pay" bills for petrol, mortgages, power and council tax are added, the extra cost is more like £2,200.

Yet the official inflation rate is just 2.6 per cent. Experts say a worldwide drive to produce biofuels – made from corn, wheat and soya as an alternative to oil – is a major factor.

Farmers have switched from food production to biofuel crops.

Last month, the EU agreed the biofuel content of all petrol and diesel should be 2.5 per cent.

This is set to rise to 10 per cent by 2020. But the Government's two most senior scientists, Professor John Beddington and Professor Robert Watson, have called for a rethink on the rush to biofuels.

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shopping basket graphic

Professor Beddington said: "It's very hard to imagine the world growing enough crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the enormous demand for food."

Gordon Brown is understood to be preparing to call on the EU to scrap the plan.

The effect of biofuels on food prices has been dramatic. A litre of corn oil has more than doubled in a year, to £1.38, in one of the big supermarkets. Fusilli pasta, made from wheat, is up 81 per cent, a baguette by 41 per cent and Weetabix cereal 21 per cent.

Farmers are also facing huge increases in feed bills, leading to dearer meat and dairy products. Milk is up 16.6 per cent, English butter by 62 per cent and mild cheddar by 25.6 per cent.

Free-range eggs, which come from hens fed a corn mix, have leapt in price by an alarming 47.4 per cent in a year to £2.58 a dozen.

Basmati rice is up more than 60 per cent in 12 months and Britain's biggest supplier, Tilda, has warned of a further rise of around 30 per cent in the coming year.

Chancellor Alistair Darling has called on his EU counterparts to take radical steps on food prices. He wants "fundamental reform" of the controversial Common Agricultural Policy.

The soaring price of oil is the second major factor battering consumers. Figures from the AA show the cost of diesel has risen by a quarter in the past year, while unleaded petrol is up 15.4 per cent.

The organisation says motorists are the victims of international oil speculators and UK taxes.

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household bills graphic

Spokesman Luke Bosdet said: "The oil companies tell us there is no shortage, but market speculators are having a field day gambling on prices.

"It is a pantomime. The Government is threatening to add another 2p in duty in October. We think the Chancellor needs to announce as soon as possible that this will be postponed."

The higher price of oil is dragging up the cost of both gas and electricity.

Householders who have seen a 15per cent increase so far this year face another 25per cent rise by September.

The Daily Mail Cost of Living Index is compiled in association with the price comparison websites MySupermarket. co.uk and uSwitch.com.

MySupermarket offers price comparisons across the big three chains – Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's.

Many families, however, are changing to budget stores such as Aldi, Lidl and Netto.

Sales of fresh produce at Aldi are up a remarkable 40 per cent year-on-year. The Government's official inflation rate, the Consumer Prices Index, is expected this week to put inflation at around 2.6 per cent.

The Office for National Statistics argues that falls in the price of electrical gadgets, clothes and furniture offset the increases in food. But critics say that fails to reflect real life.

Tim Wolfenden of uSwitch said: "Consumers must be feeling like the rug is being pulled out from under their feet. Every time they regain their balance another set of price hikes knocks them over again.

"However you look at it, 2008 is shaping up badly for British consumers."

Comment Add your comment Comments (56)

56 people have commented on this story so far. Tell us what you think below.

"The Office for National Statistics argues that falls in the price of electrical gadgets, clothes and furniture offset the increases in food. But critics say that fails to reflect real life."
But I don't buy any of those every week and I can't eat them.

- Bernard, Edinburgh Scotland

This is not just in Britain. Global food prices have rocketed recently. However, people have made so much on their houses in the last few years, that this rise is easily affordable.

- Graeme Carter, London, UK

And where are we supposed to find this extra money?
They are making billions in profit.
Something has to be done soon. Or we will be the country that is going to need food aide!
Or this country is going to become a land of homeless starving paupers!

- Colin, Essex

The Consumer Price Index is very accurate. I buy furniture, clothes and electrical gadgets once a week, but only buy food, gas, petrol etc once a year. If only...

- Marlene Dietrich, Bradford

At the care home I work for, the residents' food allowance has only been increased by 4% since last year which means that we keep having to cut back on what we buy and serve. The company does not want to spend any more on the residents and denies there is a problem.

- David Jessop, Newcastle, UK

I have yet to see something that has gone up by just 2.5% which is what this bunch of shysters tell us is the rate of inflation. The Labour party is around 20 million pounds in debt and has not been in the black for years yet we are told to trust these people with our economy. Look around the world and you see Governments reducing, suspending or stripping various forms of tax and VAT to help their people. What does our lot do, why the only thigh this sad bunch know how to do and that's put up tax again. The fact that our pathetic chancellor is still considering upping the fuel tax says it all. He should have announced weeks ago that this was not to happen. With the extra vat he is getting due to the rising price of crude he could reduce the cost of fuel by 9p a litre but this is the Government of take take and take.

- Duncan Walker, London England

What a ridiculous statement in a market economy.

Spokesman Luke Bosdet said: "The oil companies tell us there is no shortage, but market speculators are having a field day gambling on prices."

If there was enough for the World's needs then the price would come back down - that's how the market economy works. In reality, the oil price is on a one way trip to $200 a barrel and beyond, and in fairly short measure. The only thing that might hold it back is the likely recession in the developed world but that's only going to act as a slight brake, it won't stop the relentless rise. We need to adjust to the fact that over the next generation or so, our living standards are going to drop - the free ride on the back of the petro economy is over for good.

- Kevin Phelps, UK

For decades food has got cheaper in real terms. This is the first significant increase I can remember. Maybe it'll make people buy more cheap vegetables and stop wasting so much food.

- Marty, Altrincham

Expect Gordon shortly to suggest 'let them eat cake'!

- Graham, St Albans

It's much the same over here, I have one good meal a week - as in steak and 5 forms of veggies.

- Caval, Melbourne, Australia

So inflation is at 2.5% is it! in Nu Labour La, La land it may be, but in the real world with us mere mortals it is 18% and rising.

- D Brown, Solihull

Nu Labour government is driving this country to the brink of poverty, where do they think you get the money from for all these extras, my daughter now goes food shopping with twenty pounds to feed three of them.

- Jean Hartell, Wolverhampton England

The government will still tell us inflation is below 3%.

- Robert Morgan, Houghton-le-Spring, Tyne & Wear

When will the public be told the real facts about the EU? It has been responsible for ADDING at least £20/week to the food bills of the average British family for years. In addition our budget contributions ALONE since we joined are worth about £500 Billion at today's values. Yet we are not even being given the opportunity to vote on the EU Constitution which will destroy the UK as a nation.

- Jerry, Croydon, England

When fuel costs increase, so to does the cost of food. It's time for the fuel levy to be reduced, in an effort to bring down food prices.

- Michael, Bedfordshire

How many families drink a bottle of Jacobs Creek Chardonay each week at 64% up and frozen peas up 67% (when you can substitute for veg in season, broccoli, lettuce and tomatoes are all the same as last year)? Take these out of the equation and the statistics are more realistic. Methinks the Mail doth protest too much!

- Sk, East Sussex

The food crisis is caused by the European Union, for three reasons. First it stupidly follows all the fads about green foods and it insisting that grain is converted to petrol rather than being used as food. Secondly, the Common Agricultural Policy is notorious for encouraging and rewarding inefficiency. And thirdly, by preventing a free world market in food it makes food from outside the EU expensive. Remember when we used to have all that lovely butter, cheese and other products from New Zealand? The sooner we leave the EU the better.

- George, Bolton, England

The sooner there is a General Election the better.
New Labour has taxed us all to death especially childless couples and single people who cannot claim tax credits.

- Stephen Holmes, Withington Manchester

2.6%... what a joke. Of course the true inflation figures could not possibly be published as this would have an immediate knock on effect on inflation linked pay claims. Just goes to show that how easily the figures can be manipulated to try con the minions. We can see through you Mr Brown (and cronies).

- Eric Hall, Chester le Street, Co. Durham

Gordon Brown's measure of inflation, the CPI, says it is only 2.4%, do NuLabour really think the public are stupid enough to believe them. To say that "falls in the price of electrical gadgets, clothes and furniture offset the increases in food" is ludicrous - I don't buy these every month, but I do need food, water, gas and electricity on a daily basis. What world do they live in?

- Mo, London

The extra £19 per week could be saved by dropping the alcohol alone. It could be further cut by dropping the chocolate biscuits, extra varieties of breakfast cereals and bread. It is also unnecessary to purchase bottled water when you already buy from the tap! I live on a low wage but get by on food from my allotment and only a few luxuries once in a while.

- Louisa, Winchester

Britain now has the most disreputable, tax thieving government ever. McBean would have us believe that the cost of living increases are down to world finances. Not so! Much is down to stealth taxes, council tax, fuel duty. Hope the electorate of Crewe consider this next week.

- Terence, Hereford, UK

Why are the public constantly been bombarded with price hikes. What was once an essential has now become a luxury full of packaging and surplus tax. Shame on those companies who are starving the public while they can eat all there alarming profits. It just doesn't make sense!

- Suzan Gumush, Kent

'victims of international oil speculators and UK taxes'.
There are no shortages, their GREED is the problem.

- Mickey V, Manchester UK

The official index of inflation needs to be scrapped and replaced urgently with something realistic. The same must be said of Gordon Brown.

- Tom Katz, Weybridge, UK

Re: your price index. Please tell me where you can buy bread at £65p. We pay £1.15 at our supermarket.

- Dennis, Sunderland UK

Brown wants to save the poor of the whole world, why doesn't he resign and grab a job at the UN instead, then maybe we can have a strong PM geared to raise the UK standard of living, where we can all feel secure enough to give generously voluntarily.

- George, London, UK.

So what are this government using to set the less than 3% inflation figures? Luxury goods should NOT be included in these mythical figures, essentials that we can't do without are the answer, but that would really set the cat among the pigeons, the truth might come out!

- Katie, Stoke

And, how on earth do you expect pensioners and retired people, those on fixed incomes and all those paid the minimum wage to exist?

- Kenneth, Suffolk, England

The CPI is a fiddle because the ONS does not reflect how consumer goods prices work.

Yes flat screen TV have dropped in price but they have now effectively replaced the old cathode ray tube TV. The price of a TV has therefore stayed the same not dropped.
When any new technology is introduced it is only the early buyers who pay the ridiculous prices asked.

- Dee Bee, Bournemouth

"We think the Chancellor needs to announce as soon as possible that this will be postponed."

No, the "chancellor" should ABANDON this theft, and REDUCE fuel tax by at least 20p/litre. He will still probably be laughing all the way to the bank even if he did this.

- David, UK

The great drive to save us from global warming is now costing people their lives. Stupid politicians in America and Europe thought Biofuel was part of the answer - tell that to the starving and dying throughout Africa. The EU should prevent the use of Biofuels and put pressure on the USA to do the same. I know I would rather eat than drive my car!

- John, Manchester

Perhaps people will now think twice before wasting food and flying to New York for the weekend. The winner is the environment.

- Anna, Brighton, England

The government would move the "goal posts" if it was appliances costing more and something not on the list costing less.

- Donald A Merritt, Watford Herts

Please do a like for like comparison (historical and current) with the U.S. and others in Europe eg: France, Germany. Then we can see whether the rises are the result of global influences or policies implemented by our current government.

- M Jeffs, Bucks UK

But there's no need to panic - inflation is running at only 2.5% - that's official.

- Martin, Newmarket, Suffolk

Thick sliced white loaf - 65p? Where do you shop? They are £1.20 in my local supermarket.

- Davep, Liverpool, UK

With prices going up hopefully it will stop people throwing out perfectly good food. Should balance out the wastage people have each year.

- Lol, UK

""must-pay" bills for petrol,"

That is LUXURY not "must pay.

You have problems paying for petrol, get rid of the car and take a bus.

- Ragnar Vagmornasson, UK

This country was self sufficient as far as food is concerned, then we joined the EU and they told us what we could and could not grow and how much we could grow. This shambles is the result of ten years of Labour bending its knee to any rubbish dictate from Europe and its destruction of our fishing and farming industry.

- John Phillips, Derby

A 20 kg Basmati rice bag used to cost less than today's price of 10 Kg bag.

- Di, London

I don't believe it - our wonderful Government tells us that inflation is only 2%.
Would they lie? Answers on a postcard please to Gordon McBroon, Temporary PM, Holyrood House (sorry, Downing Street.)

- Mike Randall, Worcester England

This is the time to get Labour OUT.

- Carol, Swansea Wales

It used to be the case that in third world countries people ate mainly rice and cycled everywhere.If things continue as they are in the UK,it won't be too long before we're all eating mainly rice and cycling everywhere. I suppose veggies and environmentalists will think this is progress!

- Mike, Dunstable England

The problem with bread, in particular, is that in this country it is rated as a premium product and so costs more in the first place. In other countries bread is rated as a basic staple and so costs less. My 'granary' loaf costs me anything from 1.48 to 1.60 unless it is on a special offer. I have cut bread now almost out of my life which has not only helped towards the cost of things I like but has helped also to reduce my waistline.

- Joe, Guildford, England

I'd like some of that 65p bread too! Haven't seen it at that price for a very long time...

- Harry Adams, Powys

I have said it all along, "This country is being held to ransom with a gun to its head' by the Macmafia and the Brussel Sprouts!

Their single intention is to close UK Plc down and turn into a prison colony!

- Neil Robinson, Hartlepool, England

Whilst I agree that the western world is being held to ransom by the oil producing States, it must be remembered that initial cost of crude oil is the same to all other nations of the western world. Why, then, is Britain more severely hit in prices at the pump than any of our European partners. The price we pay for diesel and petrol is directly reflected on the price we pay in the supermarkets for our essential food produce. Everything arrives on the supermarket shelves courtesy of road freight and diesel. If the British government’s economic and financial policy had not been so flawed over the last 10 years they would not need to take 65% in pump prices as tax, thus swelling the family shopping trolley by £1000.

- Michael Nye, Colnbrook, England

We now have a really big Tesco Extra in Shrewsbury, we also have Aldi, Netto and Lidl.

I have been round all of them, and Tesco come out cheapest for food on all accounts. So where are these shoppers getting these really cheap prices from when they mention these 'cut price' stores?

I think that these so called cheaper supermarkets have put out signals to people and conning them into thinking that they are cheaper.

Maybe it's where these shops are situated. Is Shropshire more expensive then?

- Jc, Shropshire

Let get back to valuing food. Why can't the young wives make wholesome food from leftovers just like we did in the 30s/40s/50s. The throw away society is in decline, and about time to.

- Peter Pyett, Rhodes Greece

In Morrisons two weeks ago green peppers were 78p, two weeks later they are now 99p, that's around a 27% increase in two weeks. How can inflation be around 2.5%?

- Frank Sloane, Durham

Brown the saviour who has taken a million children out of poverty and a million pensioners out of poverty, who has made five million benefit scroungers the new middle class (they seem to have all the latest mod cons and plenty of beer and cigarette money in my area). The taxpayer has been watching these sneaky tax rises going on for 11 years, and I hope those idiots who voted in this shower three times, feel thoroughly ashamed at their stupidity.

- Carol, Bideford, north Devon

Dennis, Sunderland UK;

Welcome to the planet Earth, Dennis, traveller from another world! Go in any Tesco, Sainsbury, Summerfield, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons etc and you will get a 800g loaf of bread for between 38p to 40p. It's called CHEAP VALUE own brand.

I rarely buy anything else and don't contribute 1p to the 10 Billion pounds of food wasted by all the 'wasters' in the UK. 'Wasters' who are daft enough to pay dear for their food, and then throw a lot of it away cause it makes them feel they're rich!

- Sean Hamerton, York

To Graeme Carter, London, UK - I fail to follow your rational about the increase in house prices cushions the home owners against the rising cost of living - you only realise the added price when you SELL your home, and then you either buy another at an inflated price - or live in "box city" and stuff the cash in your back pocket.

- Michael Nye, Colnbrook, England

Bread at Aldi is currently 37p a loaf.

- Cww, Suffolk

Sadly this something that will inevitably get worse. Fuel, food, travel, cars and household goods are going to get much more expensive. Every week there are millions of new consumers in China and India all wanting a similar standard of living to the West. The problem we have in the UK is that we are no longer self sufficient in anything.

- Djc, Preston

April 22, 2008

How Many Earth Days Do We Have Left?

By Terrence McNally, AlterNet
Posted on April 22, 2008, Printed on April 22, 2008
http://www.alternet.org/story/83032/
Of all the resources needed to build an economy that will sustain
economic progress, none is more scarce than time. That is one of the key
messages of PLAN-B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, the newest book
by Lester Brown -- available as a free download at earthpolicy.org.

Plan A -- the western fossil-fuel-based, auto-centered, throwaway
economic model -- is not going to work for China, India, or the 3 billion
other people in developing countries, and it will not continue to work
for the industrial countries either.

It's time for Plan B -- an all-out response at wartime speed
proportionate to the magnitude of threats facing civilization.

The four overriding goals of PLAN B 3.0 are to stabilize climate and
population, eradicate poverty, and restore the earth's damaged
ecosystems. Failure to reach any one of these goals will likely mean failure to
reach the others as well.

"We are crossing natural thresholds that we cannot see and violating
deadlines that we do not recognize," says Brown. "These deadlines are set
by nature. Nature is the timekeeper, but we cannot see the clock."

Lester Brown has been described by The Washington Post as "one of the
world's most influential thinkers." After working with the Department of
Agriculture in international agricultural development, Brown helped
establish the Overseas Development Council, then founded Worldwatch
Institute, publishers of annual State of the World and Vital Signs reports.
In 2001, he left Worldwatch, founded Earth Policy Institute, and
published Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth.

TERRENCE McNALLY: When you were involved in agriculture in the Kennedy
administration, few thought about the environment, unless it was about
conservation or wilderness. A bit later, environmentalism was usually
local -- a polluting factory or a threatened forest. Yet very early you
had a global understanding of environmental issues. How did that
happen?

LESTER BROWN: It was probably due to, first, living two and a half
years in villages in India in 1956, where I could see the food/population
problem beginning to unfold; and second, my training in the sciences,
which gave me a feel for how natural systems work.

McNALLY: What has driven you to write Plan B, and then Plan B 2.0 and
Plan B 3.0?

BROWN: One of the goals of the Earth Policy Institute is to provide a
vision of a kind of world we want, and a sense of how we get from here
to there. Plan B was the first version of this.

With 3.0, we've changed the subtitle from Rescuing a Planet Under
Stress and a Civilization in Trouble to simply Mobilizing to Save
Civilization. We used to think about saving the planet, and that's still
essential, but what's really at stake now is civilization itself.

We have a growing backlog of unresolved problems in the world:
deforestation, collapsing fisheries, expanding deserts, falling water tables,
eroding soils, you can go down the list. The fallout from these problems
is becoming more and more difficult to manage, especially for
governments in developing countries.

A number of countries have developed enough to bring down mortality but
not enough to bring down fertility. With a rapid rate of population
growth, they're caught in what demographers call "the demographic trap."
If you can't break out of it, eventually you begin to break down.

17 of the top 20 failing states have rapid rates of population growth.
These are the countries where most of the 70 million people added each
year are being born. As this list of failing states grows each year, we
have to ask how many failing states before we have a failing
civilization? No one knows the answer. We haven't been there before.

On top of traditional environmental problems, we now have new stresses
like soaring oil prices that put a lot of pressure on low and
middle-income oil-importing countries. Then as the United States converts a
growing share of our grain into fuel, we drive world grain prices to
all-time highs, creating instability in low and middle-income countries that
import grain. We face the risk that the combination of rising oil and
food prices will greatly increase the number of failing states. I think
the number of failing states in the world is now the key indicator as
to whether civilization is going to succeed or fail.

McNALLY: The enormous global inequity in income and wealth breeds
inequity in health, in education, and in all phases of life, doesn't it?

BROWN: There is a vast opportunity gap, and those born into societies
with few opportunities become recruits for international terrorist
groups. In Africa, revolutionaries who want to overthrow governments simply
recruit kids -- 10, 12, 14 years old -- give them guns and let them go.
As I look at the world today, terrorism is a problem and a threat, but
even bigger threats are the persistence of poverty, continuing
population growth, and climate change.

McNALLY: In one of the earlier versions of Plan B, you pointed out the
danger of our attention to terrorism distracting us from these other
issues. In 3.0, you've knit those problems together even more clearly.
Now you're saying they're no longer "either/or", but they are
inextricably linked.

BROWN: No question. The money we lay out to deal with things like
population growth, environmental degradation, spreading water shortages,
climate change, etc. is really the new security budget because these are
the real threats.

The climate change threat is enormous. Last August an area of Arctic
sea ice twice the size of Britain melted in one week. Scientists have
never seen anything like this before.

Greenland has an ice sheet a mile thick or more, covering almost the
entire island, which is three times the size of Texas. The rate at which
it's melting now is extraordinary. There's a large glacier on the west
coast, where the ice sheet flows into the sea, 3 miles wide and a mile
deep, and it's flowing at 2 meters an hour. Glaciers normally flow at
80-100 meters per year. This is 2 meters per hour!

McNALLY: How much has global temperature risen so far?

BROWN: About one degree Fahrenheit over the last several decades. By
the end of this century, temperature could rise anywhere from 3 to 10
degrees Fahrenheit.

McNALLY: But it's much greater than that at the poles, isn't it?

BROWN: Yes. We report temperature changes as a global average, but we
have to keep in mind that temperature rises faster over land than over
oceans, faster near the poles than near the equator, and faster in the
interior of continents than in coastal regions. In parts of Alaska,
Northern Canada, Siberia and areas around the Arctic Circle including
Greenland, temperatures have already gone up 3 to 7 degrees.

The west Antarctic ice sheet is not really on the continent itself, but
is supported by a number of islands. When it starts to go, it could
break up very quickly.

McNALLY: What might be the repercussions of that?

BROWN: If Greenland melts entirely, that adds 23 feet to the sea. The
west Antarctic ice sheet adds 16 feet -- so together almost 40 feet. If
that happens, many of the world's coastal cities would be under water.
This is not going to happen in years or decades, but will be spread out
over we hope at least a century or two. But still the rate becomes
alarming. Even a one-meter rise in sea level threatens a lot of cities.

A large share of the world's population lives pretty close to the
coast. If sea level were to rise 39 feet, there would be at least 600
million rising sea refugees. What happens to the price of land in the
interior, if vast numbers are forced inland?

McNALLY: When people talk about melting glaciers, they usually refer to
Greenland, the Arctic and Antarctica. You point out that throughout
the world we depend on mountainous glaciers for a steady supply of water.
Los Angeles, for instance, is vulnerable to this.

BROWN: Mountain glaciers are melting everywhere. The Alps and Andes
could be almost entirely gone in half a century. But I'm even more
concerned about the Tibetan plateau. All the major rivers in Asia originate in
the Himalayas: the Indus, the Ganges, the Mekong, the Yangtze, and the
Yellow River.

McNALLY: These rivers sustain huge numbers of people.

BROWN: During the dry season, the Ganges is fed by the ice melt from
the Gangotri glacier, a vast glacier that could be gone entirely by mid
century. If we can't close enough coal-fired power plants fast enough to
save it, then the Ganges will become a seasonal river that no longer
flows during the dry season. Imagine the consequences of that. Think
about the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers that irrigate the wheat and rice
fields of Asia.

McNALLY: Along with the US, China and India are two of the three
largest grain-producing countries.

BROWN: The two countries most affected by the melting of the glaciers
in the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau will be India and China, which
happen to be the two countries now building most of the world's coal
fired power plants.

McNALLY: In other words, they're putting up more and more greenhouse
gases at a time when their very survival is dependent upon cutting them
back. Those kinds of connections and interactions are some of our
biggest blind spots, aren't they?

BROWN: We face four big challenges right now. We need to stabilize
climate, stabilize population, eradicate poverty and restore the earth's
damaged eco systems.

We probably cannot stabilize population growth humanely unless we
eradicate poverty. Stabilizing population means making sure that all
youngsters get at least an elementary school education, girls as well as boys.
It means providing basic health care, immunization against childhood
diseases, the basic fundamentals of health care at the village level.

We have to provide reproductive health care and family planning
services as well. There are at least 200 million women in the world who want
to limit their number of children, but who lack access to family
planning programs. The cost of family planning for these women over a year
would be a tiny fraction of what we're spending in Iraq.

McNALLY: Iraq is now about 3 billion a week. Two years of Iraq funding
could solve almost all the biggest problems we're facing. Talk about
misspent resources!

BROWN: In terms of annual expenditures, the total bill for Plan B is
less than $200 billion a year. I call it the New Defense Bill, because --
terrorism notwithstanding -- the real threats to our future now are
climate change, continuing rapid population growth, continuing
destruction of the economy's environmental support systems, the things that lead
to failing states.

McNALLY: I've always said that the key to minimizing the threat of
terrorism is to make terrorists pariahs in their own societies.

BROWN:

I can remember what we did in the post World War II period. Normally
after you win a war, you pillage. Instead we launched the Marshall Plan
to rebuild the very countries with which we'd been engaged in one of the
most deadly wars in history.

McNALLY: We did the opposite after World War I, and the result of that
was World War II.

Let's imagine civilization is our patient. We've talked about some of
the symptoms: climate change, peak oil, loss of water and soil. Briefly,
what are the diagnosis and the recommended treatment?

BROWN: Looking at the world through an ecological lens, I see a
mounting backlog of unresolved problems, many of them associated with
population growth including deforestation, expanding desert, deteriorating
grasslands, eroding soils, falling water tables. Very few of these trends
have been turned around; instead they're getting worse and becoming more
difficult to manage. Now add to that climate change and peak oil.

McNALLY: Peak oil is the moment at which we've taken half of the oil
out of the earth. One might say, "Only half ... we're in good shape."
But, once we reach peak oil, we've used up the easiest half, and every
subsequent barrel becomes more expensive.

BROWN: We have spent our lifetimes in a world where, except for an
occasional blip here and there, oil production has always been increasing.
In a world where oil production is no longer increasing, no country can
get more oil unless another gets less, and that's a very different
world. It creates a lot of tensions. It creates a politics of scarcity and
rising oil prices.

As the United States shifts an ever larger share of its grain harvest
into the production of fuel, the world is now facing quite possibly the
worst food price inflation in history.

McNALLY: When we did an interview on Plan B four or five years ago, you
predicted the current battle for grain. Does it go into the gas tank
of a rich person or the mouth of a poor person?

BROWN: Nearly 20 percent of the 2007 grain harvest has been used to
produce ethanol to satisfy, at most, 4 percent of our automotive fuel
needs. From an agricultural point of view, the automotive fuel demand is
insatiable. The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV tank with ethanol
would feed one person for a year.

McNALLY: So the shift of grain to ethanol raises grain prices for us
and the rest of the world, condemns millions to starvation -- all to
supply a speck of our energy demand.

BROWN: We're in an ironic situation where as taxpayers we are
subsidizing the conversion of grain into ethanol, and therefore a rise in our
own food prices. So we pay twice, on April 15 when we settle our taxes
and then every time we go to the supermarket checkout counter.

McNALLY: Let's shift to solutions -- eradicating poverty, family
planning, education and so on. You say that for $200 billion a year we could
solve them.

BROWN: Yes -- one fifth of global military expenditures which are now
over a trillion, or 1000 billion per year. $100 billion weapon systems
are almost useless now. You can't use them to deal with the problems
we're facing.

McNALLY: What are the solutions?

BROWN: To slow climate change, we've devised a plan to cut carbon
emissions 80 percent -- not by 2050, which is what politicians like to talk
about -- but by 2020.

McNALLY: An 80 percent reduction in 12 years. How do we do it?

BROWN: There are three components to the plan: first, dramatically and
systematically raise the efficiency of the world energy economy;
second, massive investment in renewable sources of energy; and third,
increase the earth's tree cover by planting billions of trees.

On efficiency, let me offer one simple example that most people are
familiar with. If we replace incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescents,
we can cut global electricity use 12 percent, allowing us to close 700
of the world's 2360 coal fired power plants.

40 percent of the world's electricity currently comes from coal, but by
2020 we see wind providing 40 percent.

McNALLY: In a dozen years you see wind replacing coal as the dominant
energy source?

BROWN: There's 100,000 wind turbines in operation today, so that means
building about a million and a half more producing two megawatts each:
3 million megawatts in global wind generating capacity. But a million
and a half wind turbines over a dozen years is peanuts compared with
producing 65 million cars a year, which we do now.

The Texas state legislature and the Republican governor, Rick Perry,
are putting together a package to harness that state's abundant wind
energy. They're planning about 23,000 megawatts of wind energy, which will
do away with 23 coal-fired power plants and supply half the state's
residential electricity.

McNALLY: How quickly will that happen?

BROWN: By 2020. They're moving very fast.

We can install a million and a half wind turbines and combine that
technology with plug in hybrids. Add a second storage battery and a plug-in
to a Toyota Prius and you can recharge the batteries at night. The
car's batteries become a storage facility for wind energy.

McNALLY: Toyota says they'll have plug-ins by 2010, and they're in
competition with other companies who say they'll have it quicker.

BROWN: The big competition right now is between Toyota with the
modified Prius and GM with the Chevrolet Volt. The gasoline equivalent cost of
running cars on cheap wind-generated electricity is less than a dollar
a gallon.

McNALLY: Wow! Will it take tax subsidies or incentives to get us to
ramp up wind and renewables?

BROWN: The key is to get the market to tell the environmental truth,
and right now the market does not do that. The market does a lot of
things well, but it does not do a good job of incorporating what we call the
"indirect cost" or what economists call "externalities." For example,
the climate change and pollution costs of fossil fuels. The simple way
to do that is to add carbon taxes and offset that increase by lowering
income taxes.

McNALLY: Make it tax neutral, so that your pocket book bite is the same
at the end of the year. But instead of taxing labor or work, which we
want more of; we tax pollution and greenhouse gases, which we want less
of.

BROWN: So we end up with more jobs and less climate destruction -- a
win/win situation.

McNALLY: In terms of transforming our industries, you point to World
War II, which you lived through.

BROWN:

In his State of the Union address one month after Pearl Harbor,
President Roosevelt announced that we were going to produce 25,000 tanks,
60,000 planes, 20,000 artillery planes. It was extraordinary. No one had
ever seen arms production like this.

Then he called in the leaders of the auto industry and said, "Guys,
guess what, we're going to ban the sale of private automobiles in the
United States." The automobile industry had no choice but to switch to
producing arms. And we didn't produce just the 60,000 planes, which was the
goal, we produced 229,000. We exceeded every one of those arms
production goals.

McNALLY: So it is your sense that we could make that same kind of a
massive shift if leaders take this seriously?

BROWN: No question. It didn't take decades to restructure the US
industrial economy. It didn't take years. We did it in a matter of months.
That's the exciting and encouraging thing about what we're challenged
with now. It is entirely doable.

We have it in our power to restructure the world energy economy and
avoid disastrous climate change. All we need is the leadership, the
vision, and the will.

Interviewer Terrence McNally hosts Free Forum on KPFK 90.7FM, Los
Angeles (streaming at kpfk.org).

© 2008 Independent Media Institute. All rights reserved.

View this story online at: http://www.alternet.org/story/83032/

April 14, 2008

Global Hunger update

IMF head gives food price warning - The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that hundreds of thousands of people will face starvation if food prices keep rising. Social unrest from continuing food price inflation could cause conflict. There have been food riots recently in a number of countries, including Haiti, the Philippines and Egypt. Although the problems in global credit markets were the main focus of the meeting, he warned of dire consequences from continued food price rises. "Thousands, hundreds of thousands of people will be starving. Children will be suffering from malnutrition, with consequences for all their lives." The problem could lead to trade imbalances that may eventually affect developed nations, "so it is not only a humanitarian question". Food prices have risen sharply in recent months, driven by increased demand, poor weather in some countries and an increase in the use of land to grow crops for transport fuels.
Spiralling food prices have already prompted government intervention in many countries. India, Morocco, China, Senegal and Indonesia have cut import tariffs on wheat, while Ethiopia, Pakistan and Zambia have imposed export quotas and, in extreme cases, export bans. Many countries, including Benin and Senegal, have introduced food subsidies in an attempt to keep basics at an affordable price. The threat of starvation recently triggered riots in Indonesia, prompting government intervention in the form of food subsidies. Shortages and high food and fuel prices have sparked civil unrest in Central Africa, West Africa and Zimbabwe and caused riots over the last few years in Mexico, Bengal, Indonesia, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Guinea and Mauritania. World cereal production has declined by up to 16% in recent years in both the US and the European Union, mainly due to reduced plantings and adverse weather in some of the major producing and exporting countries. Wheat production in Australia has fallen a staggering 52%, its cereal production by 33%. Formerly the breadbasket of the world, its grain silos now stand virtually empty. A senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics and the Centre for Global Development in Washington, estimates that global warming will cause a 16% decline in global agricultural gross domestic product by 2020. He also projects output to fall by 20% in developing countries and by 6% in industrialised nations. Last year tied as the earth’s second warmest year in recorded history. Rising temperatures are already resulting in shorter picking seasons. In some cases fruit crops are maturing and rotting before they can be picked. Over recent years, warmer temperatures have resulted in fruit ripening early and falling prey to frosts, as was the case with fruit and nut crops in southern USA in 2007 and 2006. The more arid regions are already being tipped into the danger zone of drought, causing crop failure and loss of livestock. Asia’s melting glaciers may pose the BIGGEST THREAT TO FOOD PRODUCTION THE WORLD HAS EVER FACED. Developing countries are currently relying on band-aid-style trade strategies, which are already proving inadequate.

from http://home.att.net/%7Ethehessians/disasterwatch.html


February 14, 2008

The physical world today: Global disasters

Thursday, February 14, 2008 -

Have a HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY!

This morning there has been a 5.4 quake in RWANDA, and a 6.7 and 6.1 quake in SOUTHERN GREECE.

Largest quakes yesterday -
2/13/08 -
6.2 TIMOR SEA
5.2 GULF OF PARIA, VENEZUELA
5.0 SOUTHERN PERU
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS

GREECE - Two strong earthquakes struck southern Greece this morning, sending people rushing out of buildings in areas near the epicenter. There were no immediate reports of injuries. The first quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 6.5, hit just after noon and was felt as far away as Cairo, Egypt. 'It was incredibly strong and lasted a long time.' The second, which seismologists said was likely a 'very strong aftershock of the first, had a preliminary magnitude of 6.4 and hit about two hours later. Both had an epicenter beneath the seabed 140 miles south-southwest of Athens. The first quake struck at a depth of about 18 miles beneath the seabed, which helped prevent it causing serious damage.

RWANDA - The 5.4 earthquake that hit Rwanda's capital of Kigali early today has left at least one injured and sent panicked residents running into the streets. The strong tremor occurred at around 4:00am (local time), less than two weeks after a 6.1 earthquake shook the Great Lakes region in eastern Congo on February 4, killing 45 people, including 38 in Rwanda.

INDONESIA - A strong 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck off the eastern Indonesian province of Maluku yesterday, prompting a tsunami alert that was later lifted.

CALIFORNIA - cities bordering Mexico, including Calexico and El Centro, have been rocked since Friday by hundreds of quakes, from tiny to teeth-rattling. Three have registered a magnitude of 5.0 or more. On Wednesday alone, at least three dozen earthquakes, one a 3.3, registered on the Richter scale. Though the quakes aren't breaking any geologic records, to Calexico residents the shaking has seemed nonstop. The tremors feel 'like a big rumble, then all of a sudden the house starts moving.' More than 100 buildings in Mexicali are believed to have sustained damage. Similar quake swarms hit the region in May 2006 and in summer and fall of 1999. The region rests atop not only a fault line but also a geothermal area, where past volcanic activity has kept underground rocks hot. That heats the groundwater, which could lubricate local fault lines or change underground stresses.

IRAN - A moderate 4.3 earthquake overnight rattled a remote mountain area in Iran and injured 10 people and damaged 70 buildings.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES / RISING SEA LEVELS -
INDONESIA - High waves that struck coastlines across Indonesia's eastern islands killed one and forced hundreds to flee their homes on Tuesday. 'A local tourist aged 16 was swept away yesterday (Tuesday) by waves as high as three metres (10 feet) while he was fishing on the beach.' Hundreds of houses along beaches in Sikka district and about 50 others on the nearby island of Alor were damaged by the high waves. Some 300 people were evacuated to emergency shelters. The winds on Wednesday were moving at speeds of up to 70 kilometres (43 miles) per hour. They were whipping up six-metre-high waves, lashing areas on Sumba, Flores and Alor islands in East Nusa Tenggara. A low pressure system off Australia's north was contributing to the wild weather.
With the threat of large waves, strong wind and persistent rain once again hanging over their heads, fisherman remained in their shacks. At least 800 fishermen in the Cilincing and Kali Baru subdistricts have been forced to stay ashore due to rough weather on Java's northern and southern coastlines in recent weeks. Bad weather and high tides over the last two weeks have destroyed 18 houses and severely damaged 25 others in the Kali Baru subdistrict. Every year thousands of fishermen working along Java's coasts suffer the same fate. 'Usually waves get higher around Imlek (Chinese New Year), but this year the bad weather has lasted a long time.' Over the years the weather has been getting worse, making it harder to catch fish. 'Green mussels are caught not far from shore, but to get fish we have to go further and further each year.'

AUSTRALIA - Sunshine Coast lifeguards say it will be months before the region's beaches recover from significant erosion. Large swells and king tides have washed away huge amounts of sand over the past two months. Sand is slowly returning to coast beaches, but they will not be replenished until the swell decreases. 'Traditionally over the winter months we might ... get a bit lighter swell and those offshore winds and we're probably hoping through this coming winter that we might get a period of low swell which might give the beaches a chance to return.'

HAWAII - the Pacific Ocean is bouncing back to life. Taking a radical shift from what has been THE WORST WINTER ON RECORD FOR WAVES IN HAWAII FOR SURFERS, the tail end of February looks like it will be above average by comparison to other La Nina years. A final flurry of big-wave action has begun to pulse through the Hawaiian Island chain with waves to approach giant heights later this week. The Quiksilver Big Wave Invitational is staged each winter at Waimea Bay, on Oahu's North Shore, and only runs when and if wave heights reach a minimum of 20 feet on the Hawaiian wave scale (40-foot wave face heights). Today's swell is forecast to reach 15 to 18-feet Hawaiian scale. Moving beyond Thursday's swell, wave forecasters are looking at regular big-wave episodes every two to three days.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone IVAN was 421 nmi NNE of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Cyclone NICHOLAS was 155 nmi NW of Broome, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Authorities in Western Australia have issued a Blue Alert for all communities between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga as Tropical Cyclone Nicholas approaches the coast. The risk to the Kimberley Coast in the next 24 hours is gales developing. (satellite photo)
AUSTRALIA - Tropical Cyclone Nicholas could threaten the Pilbara coast over the weekend. The storm reached category one cyclone intensity Wednesday morning, with gusts of up to 100km/h. 'Nicholas is likely to become a severe tropical cyclone in the coming days.' The cyclone is expected to move slowly over the next few days before turning towards the coast of the Pilbara region, the heartland of WA's mining boom.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
BOLIVIA - some 60,000 families across the country have been affected by severe flooding, which has followed weeks of heavy rain, which started in November. The flooding is expected to get worse as more rain is forecast. The flood waters, which have killed at least 60 people, are threatening to inundate the Amazon city of Trinidad, sparking large-scale evacuations. Rivers have broken their banks and floodwaters are threatening to breach a raised road surrounding the provincial capital, home to some 90,000 people. The government has declared a state of emergency in the worst-hit areas. The rains, which have swept away crops and communication lines, are blamed on the La Nina weather phenomenon. It is the second year in a row that Bolivia has seen such floods and officials are saying that climate change is also to blame. Bolivia is used to seeing heavy rains at this time of year but the latest floods are particularly bad. The floods have caused hundreds of millions of dollars' damage to Bolivia's ranching and agriculture. ( 6 photos )

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
HONG KONG - As Hong Kong shivers through its second-longest cold spell since 1885, scientists point to global warming to explain the abnormal cold weather phenomenon worldwide. UNUSUALLY COLD weather is gripping a number of countries, including China and Canada. 'We are seeing EXTREMELY UNUSUAL WEATHER across the world.' Hong Kong yesterday recorded its second-longest cold spell - 21 days. The longest cold period lasted 27 days in 1968. That record is expected to remain intact as the thermometer is forecast to register a low of 13 degrees by Sunday. Hong Kong has also experienced more than 456 hours of cold weather this winter - MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RECORD of 205-hours set in January 2004. The cold spell has led to higher admissions to public hospitals.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

Alps snow holding up despite RECORD TEMPERATURES - snow cover is good in the Alps and Corsica, but only above 1500 meters. However the Pyrenees is suffering from a second year of poor snow with cover. Snow depths are above average in the Southern Alps following heavy falls in the first half of January. The recent warm and sunny weather has been tempered by clear, cold nights which have helped preserve the snow pack. January has seen temperatures +2.3 °C above average for the whole of France. Records were broken on the 28th of January, +8.6°C at 1970 meters at la Plagne and a whopping +25°C at 700m in the Alps Maritimes. The snow in the Pyrenees has suffered from mild weather and warm southern winds. The French environment ministry has asked people to conserve water. Rainfall has been less than average over much of France since September - 25% less than normal, with 50% less in the Pyrenees and Southern Alps.

HEALTH THREATS -
Global Bird Flu Breaking News - updated every 10 minutes.

Rising food prices have hit Asia's poor so hard that many have taken to the streets in protest, but experts see few signs of respite from the growing problem. An array of factors, from rising food demand and high oil prices to global warming, could make high costs for essentials such as rice, wheat and milk a permanent fixture. Prices globally soared nearly 40 percent in 2007, helping stoke protests in Myanmar, Pakistan, Indonesia and Malaysia. Asia's growth has left many of its poor behind. They spend between 50 and 70 percent of their meager incomes on food, making price rises especially debilitating. 'There was also a lack of investment in agriculture, particularly in science and technology and in irrigation.' Drought and bad weather, high oil prices stoking transport costs, spiking biofuel demand and low reserves have also played their part. In Australia they lost almost a year of wheat due to drought. Cold weather caused grain crops to fail in Europe and the United States, while bird flu culls and disease outbreaks hit Asian poultry and meat supply. Elsewhere, Bangladesh is struggling to feed its poor after a 2007 cyclone destroyed $600 million worth of its rice crop. The price of rice rose around 70 percent in Bangladesh last year. It now stands at around 50 cents per kilo (2.2 pounds), but many Bangladeshis live on less than a dollar per day. More recently, unexpected snowstorms swept across rice growing areas in China, where rising food costs have already raised the fear of unrest. Experts are still wary of pinning the blame for these events explicitly on the impact of global warming. But a study found that climate change could cut South Asian millet, maize and rice production by 10 percent or more by 2030. Farmers are switching to growing crops such as corn or jatropha, a weed, to feed the biofuel industry rather than crops destined for the dinner table. Thailand now requires that all its diesel fuel includes a component made from palm oil, which is also used for cooking. However, the new regulation has sent palm oil prices soaring, contributing to shortages amid shrinking supplies. The amount of US maize used for biofuel has doubled since 2003, and European wheat used for ethanol could rise 12-fold by 2016. Urbanization and industrialization in Asia are eliminating farmland and soaking up scarce water resources. Meanwhile, government policies are trying to push people out of subsistence agricultural lives into the industrial sector and urban jobs. The prospect of high food prices is a sharp break from the past, when the Green Revolution pushed up output but drove down prices in Asia from the late 1960s. Financial speculators have even begun betting the price of items like wheat and rice will rise, making the picture still more volatile.

Canada, the world's second-largest wheat exporter, said its inventories of the grain plunged 30 percent after drought hurt crops in southern growing areas and cool, wet weather damaged plants in the north. Dwindling global inventories have helped send wheat prices to records in recent months. Wheat has more than doubled during the past year on the Chicago Board of Trade. At the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, where high-protein spring varieties trade, futures have nearly tripled from a year ago. The drop in supplies in storage was the largest year-over-year decline on Dec. 31 since 1988, when inventories fell 47 percent. Stockpiles fell to the lowest for the date since 2002. Barley stockpiles fell 4.9 percent as of Dec. 31 and canola dropped 9.3 percent.

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