Peak Oil Update

Well, whadda ya know? Haven't done a post about peak oil in quite awhile. I think I am sick to death of the Iraqi war for not pumping oil or something .. you know that that is the point of the Iraqi war, don't you . to NOT pump oil so the price stays UP. These financial geniuses sure know how to make the CARTEL hurt us all. As Alex Jones says, they are CONDITIONING us to accept a 100% increase in gas prices at the pump and not feel HURT as it could be worse.. but the fact is that oil prices are going up, up, up .. and Mobil Exxon posted the largest quarterly profit in human history, inflation aside. The cost of petroleum products really does effect everything we've come to "rely" on ..

These gas hikes are not good for the business owners, but hey! we have a military machine to feed with gasoline and it fights for THEM.

So here is a nice little package of information and analysis written by someone obviously outside the loop with a bit of a policy "twist" I find highly interesting. Whither CANADA in the peak oil phase of global life? This guy has quite an answer.

Canada, Dr. Rena, is going to grow and grow and grow in population as more and more geophysical refugees end up here ... those displaced by droughts, floods, quakes, volcanoes, global warming, and who knows what else .. in very short order, too.

This is the second largest country in the world in land mass AND we got the oil, both in the plains provinces and untapped in the Arctic as well. Sure, the US will figure out how to get the bulk of it (and the water, too) by hook or crook, but it remains to be seen how the entire globe could discount Canada as a Player ...

If CANADA could just get a decent Finance Minister, someone with vision and a PLAN, people might be surprised what this place could do economically. We've got the TALENT and the smarts and the resources. Just cuz this place isn't as yet totally snowed under by a swarmy regime, doesn't mean that it can't deliver goods and services the world needs in the coming years ...

These "forecasts" by academics make me a bit crazy .,. no one knows what is coming, so let's deal with TODAY. Today, Canada is the supplier of the largest amount of oil to the leading empire of the day .. like THAT or not.

(ps. there is plenty of oil! Royal Dutch Shell did a very good sell job that it would dry up . good for Royal Dutch Shell ..)

Dr. Ravinder Rena
[Eritrea Institute of Technology]
The Ford and General Motors have announced 60,000 job cuts. This may
be more than production moving south; it could be a sign of a world
where the economic geography is changing.

Since the dawn of the industrial revolution 250 years ago, the global
economy has been dominated by Western Europe and North America. If the
19th century was Britain's the 20th century was America's. When Valery
Giscard d'Estaing first convened a meeting of the great powers in 1974
to discuss the impact of a five-fold increase in the price of oil, it
was dominated by the old order. The G7, as it eventually became,
comprised Britain, Germany, France, and Italy — and the two nations of North
America. The sole representative from the rest of the world was Japan.
Little more than 30 years after Mr. Giscard's get-together at
Rambouillet, it is clear that the G7 is an anachronism. The club has extended
 membership to Russia, while China, India, and Brazil could all stake a
 reasonable claim to be included at the expense of Italy or Canada. {????? !!!!!)

  Over the coming years, this group will grow in number and size,
according to a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). By 2050, the firm
estimates the E7 — China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, and
Turkey — will have a combined size at least 25 per cent bigger than the
G7, and perhaps 75 per cent bigger, depending on the measure used to
gauge the size of an economy. Measured using market exchange rates, the
GDP of China is 18 per cent that of the U.S.; by 2050 PwC forecasts it
will be 76 per cent as big. Using purchasing power parity (PPP) — which
takes into account that a dollar in China buys more than a dollar in
the U.S., China's GDP is already 94 per cent as big as that of the U.S.;
by 2050 it could be almost half as big again.

All this does not mean the rise of the E7 will be entirely trouble
free. History suggests that shifts in the balance of power cause
geo-political upheaval — witness the period between 1890 and 1945 — as the new
kids on the block flex their muscles and the old guard seeks to
maintain the status quo. The U.S. is already wary about the growing economic
strength of China, and
The Bric economies — Brazil, Russia, India and China — and concluded
that demand for energy and consumer goods would rocket. Take oil:
between now and 2050, GS estimates demand for oil will double to 169 million
barrels a day, with both China and India requiring more than the U.S.
does now.

Where will all this oil come from? The industry is confident there
are new sources of supply, but some analysts say the world may be close
to "peak oil," the moment when supply starts to dwindle. Now, there are
around 500 cars for every 1,000 people in the U.S., 8 for every 1,000
in India, 15 for every 1,000 in China, and 137 for every 1,000 in
Brazil. By 2050, penetration in the U.S. will have risen to 555 per 1,000; in
India it will be 382, in China 363, and in Brazil 645. Probably based
on the present trend China and India together have about 2.5 billion
people throw in the rest and that adds up to a lot of greenhouse gas.
Surprisingly, all these forecast terrified us, if not the present
generation, but for the future generations.

 Ravinder Rena is currently working in the Department of Business and
Economics at the Eritrea Institute of Technology. His two most recent
books published by New Africa Press in December 2006 are: A Handbook on
the Eritrean Economy: Problems and Prospects for Development, and,
Financial Institutions in Eritrea. The author can be contacted for feedback
comments via ravieritrea2007@gmail.com
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