September 08, 2007

Marketwatch Column this week


Go to the link to get the live quotes and action!!

From the comments:

Energy trading has been one of the greatest conduits for moving money from the masses to a few and unlike housing there has been no upside to the masses on the continuous escalation of energy prices. This is likely to get worse.

While people might claim energy trading is a free market, it really isn't in the academic sense which requires the ability for all concerned to get complete information and be able to act on it efficiently.

When history is written, the last decade will come to be knows as the decade when the financial industry created financial instruments that for the first time in history created more problems for the society than it benefitted. As to how it ends, we will have to see...

MARKET SNAPSHOT

U.S. stocks seen falling next week on growth fears
Fed speeches highlight otherwise light week for economic data

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks are expected to extend their declines next week, following a sell-off from Friday after a weak August payrolls report stoked fears that economic growth has stalled in the wake of the subprime- and credit-market turmoil, strategists said.
Investors are expected to focus on Federal Reserve speakers early in the week as they look for clues about whether the central bank plans to cut the benchmark interest rate from 5.25% at its meeting on Sept. 18, a move that is widely anticipated by market players. The attention on these speeches is likely to trump any effect from the relatively light calendar of economic data releases, analysts said.
Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin, San Francisco Fed. President Janet Yellen and Fed. Chairman Ben Bernanke are all expected to speak early in the week.
Investors "want to know that the Fed is in there, they are ready, and they are not going to let the consumer just fall off the table," said Kenny Landgraf, president of Kenjol Capital Management.
The government on Friday announced an unexpected drop of 4,000 jobs in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in August, the worst showing in four years. The report surprised investors, undercut optimism about economic growth, and sparked widespread calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates when it meets later this month. See full story.
The Fed funds futures market is currently pricing in a 75% chance for a 50 basis point cut in September. The odds were under 50% ahead of the August payrolls report.
Worries that the soft jobs report may presage an economic pullback will keep market players on edge as they scrutinize the speeches by Fed officials and, later in the week, August retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment.
"Volatility [in stocks] will remain elevated and given the employment number, combined with the fact that the market had rallied in the last couple of weeks, the bias is to the downside," said Michael Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co.
Investors drove down equity prices following the jobs report, snapping a two-week run of wins on the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Fed speak

Roberts said that Fed officials could start giving indications that a rate cut is on the way to quell nervousness in the market. That prospect puts the spotlight on Fed officials slated to speak ahead of the central bank's informal "quiet period" that comes a week ahead of rate meetings.
"I don't think they will cut inter-meeting unless there is a severe crisis, but even if the [economic] data improves, my guess is that are going to cut by 25 basis points," he said.
Mishkin, a voting member on the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, will speak on Monday night about the outlook on the U.S. economy at a dinner being held by the Money Marketeers of New York University.
A co-author with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on a number of papers, Mishkin said at the Fed's recent economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. that monetary authorities "have the tools to limit the negative effects on the economy from a house-price decline." See archived story.
Bernanke will be in Berlin on Tuesday to deliver a speech at a Bundesbank conference on "Global Imbalances: Recent Developments and Prospects."
Yellen will speak Monday morning at the National Association for Business Economics meeting in San Francisco. Yellen does not hold a voting position on the FOMC this year.
The week for economic data is light, with the most anticipated reports set to come on Friday.
The Commerce Department's report on retail sales for August is scheduled for release on Friday. August retail sales are expected to have risen 0.4%, up from a 0.3% increase in July, according to a MarketWatch survey of economists.
Economists are looking for a rise of 0.5% excluding automobiles, compared with an increase of 0.4%.
*snip*
Gold for December delivery or 0.7%, to close at $709.70 an ounce. It closed up more than 4% for the week. See Metals Stocks.
The dollar dropped to its lowest level against the yen in about a month and fell against its other rivals Friday. See Currencies. End of Story
Carla Mozee is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

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