Election
Posted by Big Gav on November 15, 2007
This is a guest post by Garry Glazebrook. Garry is a senior
lecturer in Urban Planning at the University of Technology, Sydney, and has 30
years' experience in transport and urban planning consulting, and in
government policy. He gets occasionally obesessed about peak oil,
climate change, and sustainable transport (but then dont we all?). He is a
member of ASPO Sydney and UITP (International Union of Public Transport).
Professor Peter Newman heads Murdoch University's Institute for
Sustainability and Technology Policy and is an internationally known expert
on transport and sustainability in cities.
Public Transport, Peak Oil and Global Warming
Public transport is a big issue in Australia. As a result of rising
oil and petrol prices and rapidly rising road congestion, patronage has
risen 20% on Melbourne's trains, 18% on Brisbane's buses, and 12% in
Perth in the last two years.
Sydney's rail and bus systems are now overcrowded, as are those in
Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Adelaide is now facing a major decision
about whether to electrify and extend its rail system. The quality,
reliability and availability of public transport affects millions of
citizens on a daily basis – as evidenced by headlines such as the Sun Herald
front page in Melbourne on Monday 18 June.
Continuing population growth and a trend back to urban living make
public transport vital for our future. But the likelihood of world oil
production peaking makes this an issue for the present. The recent
International Energy Agency Medium – Term Oil Market Report (July 2007)
warned of increasing tightness in oil markets beyond 2010, as a result of
strengthening demand and weakening oil supply.
Roger Bezdek, an expert on peak oil, highlighted in his recent
Australian tour the need to take oil seriously in the planning of cities and
regions. His key message is that there is likely to be increasing
competition for oil and gasoline from China just at the time when global oil
production reaches its maximum. There will also be a problem with
peaking of gas production in the near future, while options like coal to
liquids are not likely to be viable because of CO2 emissions.
Carbon trading is just a few years away. This will have to be
extended to all fossil fuels – oil included – and will further add to oil and petrol prices.
Those countries and cities without strong public
transport systems will face an uncertain future.
Cut our oil addiction, parties told
Public transport groups today urged the federal government and opposition to develop land transport plans that reduce reliance on costly and polluting oil.
“The PM has highlighted the negative impacts of our oil addiction on two consecutive days now,” said Public Transport Users Association (PTUA) President Daniel Bowen. “First he said high oil prices are fuelling inflation and interest rate rises [1], and then he expressed concern that rising petrol prices are ‘very, very painful’ [2]. It’s time the federal government got behind alternatives, like expanding passenger rail infrare.”
Global oil prices have repeatedly broken records in recent days, and many analysts believe it is only a matter of time before the US$100 per barrel barrier is broken.
“The strong dollar has cushioned Australians from the full impact of high oil prices, but our oil addiction is still draining household budgets directly at the petrol pump and indirectly through interest rates,”said Mr Bowen.
“Even worse, people who are often most hurt by rising interest rates live in areas with poor public transport, so they are caught in a pincer movement of rising petrol prices and mortgage payments. This is the hidden face of housing affordability,”said Mr Bowen.
“Parties that refuse to invest in expanding public transport are really just crying crocodile tears if they claim to be concerned about first home buyers.”
“While our dollar is strong, there is some insulation from high oil prices. But a weaker dollar would send the cost of oil imports and the pump price through the roof and swamp any misguided attempts to cut fuel tax,”warned Mr Bowen.
Hopes that biofuels will replace conventional oil have also been dashed by a recent report from the OECD and IEA titled “Biofuels: is the cure worse than the disease?”. Warning that “[t]he rush to energy crops threatens to cause food shortages and damage to biodiversity with limited benefits”, the report noted that “a litre of gasoline or diesel conserved … is a full litre of gasoline or diesel saved at a much lower cost to the economy than subsidising inefficient new sources of supply”.
Mr Bowen noted that major cuts to oil consumption and greenhouse emissions could be achieved by promoting walking, cycling, public transport and rail freight.
“Not only is public transport much more energy efficient that cars, electrified trains and trams can run on any combination of renewable and conventional electricity. It would be economically irresponsible to not invest in expanding and upgrading the passenger and freight rail networks both within and between our cities,”concluded Mr Bowen.
ENDS
1. ‘Oil prices behind interest rate hike: PM’, ABC 8/11/2007
2. ‘Govt has no plans to cut petrol tax: PM’, AAP 9/11/2007
Together with public transport user groups around Australia, the PTUA recently published ‘Moving Australians Sustainably’, a report which recommends a series of reforms to federal transport policy: www.ptua.org.au/federal
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