Middle east roundup (sigh, sigh, sigh)

Fighting pushing Lebanon toward another civil war

Fierce eruption grim reminder of 1975-90 conflict

Shi'ite opposition militiamen checked weapons yesterday during clashes with pro-government supporters in Beirut. (AFP/Getty Images)

By Borzou Daragahi Los Angeles Times / May 9, 2008

BEIRUT - Lebanon's long-simmering political crisis lurched deeper into violent civil conflict yesterday as rival bands of Shi'ite and Sunni gunmen battled in the streets for a second day and politicians took to the airwaves to denounce one another for pushing the country toward war.

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Explosions and ferocious bursts of gunfire rattled central Beirut as groups allied with the Hezbollah-led opposition and the US-backed government fired machine guns, assault rifles, and rocket-propelled grenades toward each other and into the air in apparent shows of strength. The deep thuds of occasional mortar fire shook the earth as night fell.

Throughout the day, panicked civilians scurried for cover or loaded up on basic supplies, emptying supermarket shelves of frozen meats. Gunmen had blocked roads to the country's sole international airport as well as the main highways to Damascus, the capital of Syria, and to southern Lebanon, effectively placing the capital under siege.

Lebanese news sources said at least four people were killed in yesterday's fighting and a female bystander died of wounds sustained in the previous day's clashes. But information was scant as paramedics and security officials avoided areas of intense fighting that witnesses said resembled the scope of the all-out civil war that engulfed the country from 1975 to 1990.

By late night, US-backed government allies were calling for "dialogue" with Hezbollah even as fighting continued and allegations mounted that Shi'ite militiamen were raiding homes and offices of government supporters.

The violence came amid heightened regional tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which strongly back the government, and Iran and Syria, which support Hezbollah and the opposition. The US blamed Hezbollah for the current unrest in Lebanon.

"Hezbollah needs to make a choice: Be a terrorist organization or be a political party, but quit trying to be both," US national security council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said yesterday. "They need to stop their disruptive activities now."

Tensions escalated Tuesday after the US-backed government voted to outlaw Hezbollah's communications network, which the group allegedly was expanding, and sack the Hezbollah-allied head of security at the international airport, who allegedly had begun harassing visitors suspected of political ties to the government.

The fiercest battles erupted following a televised speech yesterday afternoon by Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of the Shi'ite militia Hezbollah.

Nasrallah warned that the Lebanese Cabinet's decision to declare the group's fiber-optic system illegal was tantamount to a declaration of war and put the government squarely in the camp of Hezbollah's enemies, Israel and the United States, which consider the Shi'ite militia and political party a terrorist organization.

"This decision is first of all a declaration of war and the launching of war by the government . . . against the resistance and its weapons for the benefit of America and Israel," Nasrallah told reporters via teleconference.

"The communications network is the significant part of the weapons of the resistance," Nasrallah said. "I had said that we will cut the hand that targets the weapons of the resistance. . . . Today is the day to fulfill this decision."

Saad Hariri, leader of Lebanon's Sunni community and head of the parliamentary majority, appeared on television saying the government would ask the army to enforce the government's decision to uproot the telecommunications network and remove the head of airport security. "You say you don't want Sunni-Shi'ite strife and we don't want this to happen either," he said.

An analyst called the proposal a "small retreat" by Hariri's camp as the Lebanese Army lacks the strength or unity to confront Hezbollah or any other of Lebanon's major political groups. The army also coordinates closely with Hezbollah on security matters and has affirmed its support for "resistance" to Israel.

Supported by Iran and Syria, Hezbollah operates as a state within a state in Lebanon, with strongholds in southern and western Lebanon and southern suburbs of the capital. Its armed wing fought Israel to a standstill in a summer 2006 war. Although Hezbollah claimed victory in that conflict, the war upset Lebanon's fragile sectarian balance and precipitated an ongoing political crisis that has left the country without a president since November.

'We won't cut Iran, Hizbullah ties'
Jerusalem Post, Israel - 27 minutes ago
COM STAFF Syrian President Bashar Assad on Friday rejected Israel's demand that Syria cut its ties with Iran and Hizbullah. He said that detaching his ...

Fighting pushing Lebanon toward another civil war
Boston Globe, United States - 56 minutes ago
The violence came amid heightened regional tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which strongly back the government, and Iran and Syria, ...
Shi'ite gunmen seize control of Beirut neighborhoods Jerusalem Post
Gunmen force pro-government Beirut TV off air Reuters
Shiite gunmen seize control of Beirut neighborhoods, 11 people killedInternational Herald Tribune

On the 12th anniversary of Mansouri: Robert Fisk

13 April 2008

Another Anniversary Americans Have Long Since Forgotten

The children of Abbas Ali Jiha; Mansouri, Lebanon, 13 Apr 1996.

Just listen to this sabre-rattling, delivered in a speech by our President and reported in the Washington Post in January 2007:

This begins with addressing Iran and Syria. These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq. Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq.

Syria and Iran are allegedly supplying our enemies in Iraq, and we won't stand for it. That's justification enough for us to "seek out and destroy".

Oh really?

Today is the 12th anniversary of Israel's bombardment of south Lebanon. I know it's difficult to keep up with which Israeli bombardment of south Lebanon is which, but the one whose anniversary falls today is the one known as Operation Grapes of Wrath.

This is what happened in south Lebanon, 12 years ago today:

"All morning the Israelis had shelled the villages of southern Lebanon. The sky was alive with the sound of supersonic F-16 fighter bombers, while Apache helicopters hovered like wasps over the villages. Israel's Voice of the South radio had ordered residents to abandon their homes; if they fled, the radio promised, they would not be hurt.

Four days earlier, a fourteen-year-old Lebanese boy had been killed by a booby-trap bomb; the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia, accusing Israel of responsibility, fired Katyusha rockets across the border, wounding several Israelis; in response, Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres -- vainly seeking reelection by portraying himself as a soldier-statesman -- ordered the mass bombardment of southern Lebanon from the air, sea, and land.

In the Lebanese village of Mansouri that morning of April 13 last year, Abbas Jiha, a farmer who volunteered as an ambulance driver for the town, packed his family and several residents into the ambulance and fled the falling shells. He crammed thirteen terrified passengers into the vehicle. Abbas Jiha says that just as he was putting his children into the back of the ambulance, he saw two helicopters. "They were low, and the pilots seemed to be watching us."

Abbas remembers that by the time he left Mansouri, part of the village was on fire, the smoke curling over the fields. "We left in a convoy of tractors and cars and headed for Amriyeh, where there was a U.N. post with Fijian soldiers on the main coast road to Tyre."

It was then, as the ambulance was approaching U.N. Checkpoint 1-23, that Abbas Jiha heard the women in the back of the ambulance shouting at him. "One of them was crying out to me, 'The helicopter is coming close to us--it's chasing us.' I looked out of the window and I could see the Apache getting closer. I told them all: 'Don't be afraid. Just say "Allahu Akbar" ("God is great").'. .. I had told them not to be afraid, but I was very frightened."

A videotape by a Reuters camerawoman at the scene shows what happened next. Milliseconds after the ambulance cleared U.N. Checkpoint 1-23, a missile exploded through the back door, engulfing the vehicle in fire and smoke and hurling it some fifty feet through the air and into the living room of a house.

All that passenger Fadila al-Oglah remembers was a "great heat in my face, like a blazing fire. Somehow I was outside the ambulance, and I found a big barrel of water and started to wash my face from the heat. It was all I could think of, despite the screaming and smoke, this terrible heat."

Abbas Jiha recalls hurling himself from the door of the ambulance just before it crashed into the house. The videotape shows the immediate aftermath: wounded in the head and foot, Abbas Jiha stands in the road beside one of his dead daughters, weeping and shrieking "God is great" up into the sky, toward the helicopter.

The camerawoman, Najla Abujahjah, recalls running toward the ambulance. "I couldn't get the doors open because the vehicle was wedged in the room. But there were three children inside who were clearly in the last seconds of their life." Najla then heard a strange scraping sound. "The missile had set off the windshield wipers, and they were going back and forth against the broken glass, making this terrible noise. It will haunt me the rest of my days"."

Click here to watch an extract from the video, but be warned it is graphic; towards the end of the second minute, you will literally be watching small children die.

"In all, six people were killed, including Abbas Jiha's wife, Mona, and three of his children. Overwhelmed with grief, he tore at the vehicle with his bare hands, soon followed by the U.N. Fijian troops from the checkpoint. The Israeli helicopter remained in the sky over U.N. Checkpoint 1-23 for another five minutes. Then it flew away.

Within hours the Israelis admitted that they had targeted the ambulance, but they claimed that it was owned by a member of Hezbollah and was carrying a Hezbollah guerrilla. Both charges were untrue. There were no apologies.

Among the fragments of shrapnel and twisted steel, a young U.N. officer soon discovered a hunk of metal bearing most of a nameplate. It contained the logo "AGM 114C" and a manufacturer's number: 04939.

...[He] duly handed over to me the fragment containing the codes. They were scratched and in some cases illegible, but they included a National Stock Number in a 42-34 digit sequence, "141001-1920293". The second section of the sequence - '01' - would prove to be of vital importance. The missile's Lot No. was "MG188J315534." ...

The U.N. officer knew that AGM stood for "air-to-ground missile," and the 114C coding identified the five-foot-three-inch projectile as a Hellfire anti-armor missile, jointly manufactured by Rockwell International and Martin Marietta. According to Jane's Defense Weekly, Rockwell--now owned by Boeing--had its headquarters on Satellite Boulevard, in Duluth, Georgia. Martin Marietta, now part of Lockheed, was in Orlando, Florida. How would these missile manufacturers respond to the horror of the ambulance attack?

I drove to a campus of discreet two-story buildings and tall trees and manicured lawns. "Boeing Defense and Space Group," the sign at the gate said. It was to be a disturbing afternoon. A tiny, green-painted model of the Hellfire stood on a shelf in the room where Algarotti introduced me to two executives intimately involved in the production of the missile. They were highly intelligent men; both had been officers in Vietnam, and both would request anonymity after talking to me.

I explained that I was interested in writing about the abilities of the missile and also about its specific use in the Middle East. After handing me a brochure, the executive on my right--whom I'll call the Colonel, for that was his former rank--listed those countries that had purchased Hellfires. First on the list was Israel ("They take soldiering pretty seriously," the Colonel explained), but Egypt, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates were also included.

I asked what checks Rockwell, the original company, carried out on how the Hellfire had been used by those nations that purchased it. They read the papers, both executives said. I asked about Israel. "We do not get information from the Israelis about what they've done," one of the men replied. "They don't give much information."

From my camera bag I then produced the missile fragment. I laid the shard of iron on the table. I told the men the date of its use, the location, and the results.

Bob Algarotti said, "I'm getting a little uncomfortable." But the Colonel was angry. "This is so far off base, it's ridiculous," he said. I begged to disagree. They manufactured the missile. Didn't they bear some responsibility for its use--at least to ensure that it was used responsibly by their clients?

I agreed to lay down my pen while the three men discussed how they could frame some statement of their feelings. Both executives clearly felt deeply troubled by the events that I described. But they didn't want Boeing involved. One man said to me, twice and in identical words, "Whatever you do, I don't want you to quote me as saying anything critical of Israel's policies."

I pulled from my bag photographs of the aftermath. The executive to my left looked through them with an expression of horror. Then he said, "I don't want these." He slid the pictures over to the Colonel, who looked at them and gently returned them to me.

We parted with handshakes. I told them to keep the Hellfire missile fragment; I was returning it to them. And as I left the room, I heard a voice behind me say, "I don't think we'll put this one in the trophy room."..."

And subsequently:

"And there my story might have ended... But two days later I received a letter from a European missile technician:

The vital piece of evidence, the missile fragment, says a lot more than you revealed... The NATO stock number is partially obliterated, but does give a vital clue. Each NATO country has an identifying nationality code - in this case, the "01" for the U.S.A. is clearly visible. This shows the weapon was originally supplied to U.S. forces. The Lot No. is the most significant. This would tell you exactly where and when it was made, and more importantly, where it was delivered. You will see that the first part of the Lot No. has been obliterated...by a chisel-like instrument... So who cut out the Lot No.? Israeli forces upon receipt of "illegally exported" U.S. weaponry? U.S. forces before delivery? It is quite clear that this missile was exported from U.S. government stocks and given to the Israelis covertly.

I messaged a friend in France and asked her to call the anonymous letter-write. Minutes later she was on the line. "He called me back from a pay phone. He wants to meet you tomorrow for lunch at the Lutetia Hotel in Paris."....

The technician had arrived in Paris with his wife. He went straight to the point. "Mr Fisk, that missile was never sold to the Israelis. The '01' shows it was sold to the U.S. armed forces. And the 'M' proves it was sold to the U.S. Marine Corps." Was he sure? He pulled from his pocket NATO's entire arms coding list. Israel's imported NATO weapons, for example, would carry the numerals '31'. Britain's NATO code is '99', Italy '15'. But the nationality code for the United States was - suitably enough - '01'. Which was the code on the missile fragment. And 'M' stood for the U.S. Marines. So how, in heaven's name, did a Marine Corps missile come to be fired by the Israelis into an ambulance in southern Lebanon?

I made a formal request to the Pentagon, giving them full details of the missile's codes, asking them for "the exact provenance of this missile". I received no reply. Indeed, after more than thirty calls from me to the U.S. Defense Department and the State Department not a single official American spokesman, either at Defense or State, was prepared to give me any information.

But the U.S. Marines took a different view. When I faxed them details of the missile codings and the ambulance attack, I was immediately called back by a spokeswoman for the office of the Marine Corps Commandant. "We don't like our missiles being used to attack kids", she told me. "Where are you staying?" I waited next day at my hotel near Dupont Circle and at 5:30 a car arrived for me. It took me to a Marine base outside Washington where seven men in civilian clothes were waiting to talk to me. We sat in the officers' mess and they examined my photographs of the missile parts and told me - at last - the story of Hellfire No.MG188J315534.

It had been one of up to 300 shipped to the Gulf by the U.S. Marines in 1990 to be used against Saddam Hussein's occupation army in Kuwait. Of these, 159 were fired at Iraqi forces. But when the conflict was over, the marine officers told me, around 150 unused Hellfires - along with other ordnance - were dropped off at the Haifa munitions pier in Israel by a U.S. warship as part of a secret quid pro quo - a gift to Israel - for keeping out of the 1991 Gulf War when it was under Iraqi Scud missile attack.

I called up General Gus Pagonis, who was head of U.S. military logistics during the 1991 war against Iraq; he insisted to me that "everything we took off the ships [in Saudi Arabia] I put back aboard them en route to America". But Pagonis added meaningfully that "I don't know if the ships stopped anywhere on the way". They did. After passing through the Suez Canal, the U.S. Navy put the Hellfires and other missiles ashore in Northern Israel.

If the missile had been sold to Israel, conditions on its use would have been attached. But this was a military transfer, straight from American stocks. The missile had been paid for by the marines but ultimately handed over to the Israelis, no questions asked, and - five years later - fired into the back of an ambulance."

-- Excerpted from Made in America: a lethal weapon's return policy, Harper's Magazine, August 1997; and The Great War For Civilization, Chapter 19 "Now Thrive The Armourers..."; both by Robert Fisk.

I checked today's Washington Post, but I can't seem to find any reference to today's anniversary, nor to the clandestine arms dealing behind it that enabled Israel to blow up a Lebanese ambulance with our missiles. If Iran or Syria were responsible, Mansouri would be a casus belli. But when it's our nation illicitly supplying the weapons used to murder fleeing civilians, or even proliferating Chemical Weapons to the most volatile region in the world, neither our selectively-indignant President nor the broadsheets of our chattering classes have anything to say about it.

Mathew Maavak: We are in a Bad Fix

WE ARE IN A BAD FIX

By Mathew Maavak

This is a planet in denial. While the existential question gets a red hot "apocalypse now" for an answer, our stock markets seem to have regained paradise lost.

We are witnessing nothing less than history's first confluence of unsustainable "peaks."

Perhaps, we are incapable of piecing them all, for when crude oil reached an all-time intra-day high of $84.10 per barrel on Sept 20, its entitlement to a front pager screamer was conceded to the tale of a few thousand empty -- or emptying -- American homes.

It was like the Butterfly Effect, with a twist. The flapping rooftops of confiscated homes were now whipping up an economic tsunami worldwide.

Here is how it works.

US mortgage lenders, voracious as ever for "more," had extended loans to the default-income group, who, were in turn hit by bad economic management. Credit card issuers followed suit to bloat consumer fantasies, and banks tightened the noose with additional loans for cars, tuition and businesses.

In the world of finance, debt is ironically regarded as an "asset." Think of the rock-solid house that can be repossessed in the event of a default.

Debts, with the outward promise of a steady cash flow, are regularly pooled, "securitized" and converted into a bewildering array of financial products along an upward chain, where, they are hawked off by fund managers to the global market

This money buys up commodities, stocks, and yes, more "securities and derivatives," along with junk bonds and blue chips.

It was easy come, easy go, wherever the money takes you...a 24/7 electronic casino...a Las Vegas without borders.

London bankers were toasting to the dawn of "the haves and the have yachts" at cocktail parties where sauvé qui peut was the vintage.

One of the greatest scams in recent memory was unfolding, exposing a pyramid scheme of epic proportions.

When this reached the point of metastasis, stock markets began to collapse.

The bottom feeders could not pay up anymore. Even the middle class were finding it difficult to pass the buck upwards.

This is called a liquidity crisis, and it happens when the laws of gravity finally exert a pull on the cash flow.

Still the champagne flowed. Lip-smacking advertorials continued to gush over "securities," "derivatives," and "comprehensive financial suites," set in a Jacuzzi lilting to Ponzi's version of "money for nothing and chicks for free."

The pyramids may come crashing down, but the missing capstones are free to roam, investing in gold here, financial products there and junk bonds everywhere.

To avert a panic run though, central banks worldwide pumped $400 billion to maintain liquidity's equilibrium.

Stock markets were no longer in the bearish or bullish mode; rather they were cancroidal, allowing fund managers to sidewheel from one market to another in search of profits, suckers, and a subtle pullout before the big bang.

It was the dawn of the crab, of cancer in stock market terminology, if one was needed. Suspicions were mounting. European banks were facing insolvency.

For three days beginning Sept. 14, savers across the United Kingdom removed £2 billion ($4 billion) from Northern Rock, Britain's fifth largest lender. The Bank of England had to step in to guarantee all deposits in all banks – a move with little or no precedence.

However, the banks were not convinced either. Inter-bank lending, which profitably cycled cash from one bank to another as demand dictated, was now deemed an inter-bank debt trap. Available cash was hoarded up.

The Bank of England's cash auction of £10bn -- at a rate of 6.75% over three-months -- has been shunned for the third consecutive week.

Either the "have yachts" have sailed away, or banks may actually find it difficult to repay the Bank of England.

Worldwide, the full weight of the "asset-backed" collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and structured investment vehicles (SIVs) may run into more than the $400 billion which central banks coughed up to keep the system afloat.

CDOs and SIVs are the sleek-sounding trillion-dollar apexes built on loans taken from simple homeowners.

Banks are still tallying what is real and redeemable, and what was created from, and whirling in thin air. Their best bet now is for a deux ex machina.

Bull in the China Shop

The biggest economic success story of our times was the product of Western consumerism. It created a real supply and demand situation, which forced the relocation of factories to the Third World of cheap labor.

China was the champion recipient. Demand for toys, screws, machinery, computers and cellphones could never ebb, whether it came leaded or unleaded. Beijing's policymakers decided that the perennial flow of greenbacks demanded a domestic infrastructural revolution dictated by the export market -- a first in history if there was one.

Factories, coal-fired plants, superhighways, skyscrapers were springing up at breakneck speed to fulfill the export craze. Excessive pollution and the plight of "unregistered" migrant workers from rural China mattered little.

What mattered were prestige, kickbacks and $1.2tr in hard currency-based reserves. It did not matter that China's domestic consumption vis a vis its GDP was actually decreasing; it was more a matter of consumer opiates, of who was boss in the center of the universe.

It did not matter that Chinese cities were shrouded in toxic gray, where "only 1 percent of the country's 560 million city dwellers breathe air considered safe by the European Union." [1]

The Chinese may cough but the "days when the world caught a cold whenever Uncle Sam sneezed was over." Or so it seemed.

Uncle Sam sneezed.

Global finance began hemorrhaging, and it had to be resuscitated through an intravenous flow of taxpayer money.

Western consumers finally realized that girths had to be tightened, and what better way than to curb spending, and let a market correction take place in the import sector.

An entire supply chain leading to China's factories are in danger of folding up. Mineral resources from Africa, semiconductor plants in Malaysia, raw textile products elsewhere, now face acute market uncertainty.

China is in a bad fix. However, this is not deterring factories from coming online next year to meet the projected "global demand." If Western consumers are scaling down their purchases, Africans are not in a position to be the replacement buyers, and without a market, they will not be able to sell their raw products either.

In such circumstances, moods can shift. When

"Beijing rolled out the red carpet for more than 40 African heads of state last November, billboards depicting Africans clad in leopard skin underwear, and an indigenous man from Papua New Guinea, plastered the city." [2]

It is no wonder that China's list of "allies" is getting shorter by the day.

Events in Myanmar are not proving helpful. China enjoys a near monopoly over Myanmar's estimated 2.46 trillion cubic meters of gas and 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil. Beijing had plans to develop two parallel oil and gas pipelines stretching 2,380-km to link the deepwater port of Sittwe to Kunming, in the Chinese province of Yunnan. Upon completion, a good portion of Middle Eastern oil and gas is expected to bypass the Straits of Malacca.

The quid pro quo was arms supply and support at the UN for Myanmar's military junta. Any new government might negate all existing deals, and pull Yangon into the US orbit. This is a timely revolution from Washington's perspective.

North Korea too is seeking rapprochement. There is enough operational space now to tackle Tehran, Damascus and the Hezbollah.

China can of course play the spoiler by providing arms to these regimes via a proxy. It is still a bad idea as the Israelis are just itching for war.

The IAF recently destroyed a Syrian installation that was purportedly an embryonic nuclear facility, but may well turn out to be a Kolchuga-type passive radar system, ideal for downing B2 stealth bombers. Coincidentally, the Russians have pledged to upgrade Syrian radar defenses after the attack.

If a wider conflagration breaks out in the Middle East, there will be no oil flowing from the Straits of Hormuz to China, either through Sitte, or through the Straits of Malacca.

The best option for Beijing will be to lock its oil and gas grid to the Russian Far East at a breakneck speed, and clean up some level of air pollution in time for the 2008 Olympics.

If an all-out war in the Middle East is our worst nightmare, think of the following unfolding crises...

The Peak Crises and its plural

Peak Oil: Fossil fuels, compressed and formed over aeons in subterranean geological layers are now releasing the telltale sibilant whispers of a punctured gas tank –- low as it was on petrol in the first place. With crude oil hovering above $80 per barrel, the various subsidies built into national economies are bound to burst at the seams, and precipitate price increases for basic necessities.

There is however a unique solution -- falling consumer demand worldwide. That would crimp industrial demand for fossil fuel. It is no wonder oil majors were reluctant to build new refineries when profits seemed guaranteed in the era of "peak oil." This day would surely come!

Peak oil is also tied to the current dollar crises. With the US dollar dipping against other major currencies, crude oil should come cheaper for Washington.

Oil and other commodities are traded in dollars, and dollar-denominated assets outnumber assets weighed in other currencies. Beijing can dump its hundreds of billions in dollar reserves for euros, only to trade them back into dollars to buy crude oil, gold and other assets.

The dollar blackmail will not work, especially with the US Army entrenched in the oil-rich Middle East.

Doomsday theorists are however predicting another Great Depression ahead, where the value of the dollar may mean little in the event of a global financial meltdown.

If this occurs, a global depression will have to deal with the following phenomena that was absent in the 30s.

Peak Urbanization: More than half of the world's population will live in urban areas in just... a few months, according to a United Nations Population Fund report. That translates to 3.3 billion people in an urban concentration camp of shantytowns and high-rise pigeonholes.

Children are growing up in a peculiarly boxed-in environment, removed from the soil that births their identity. They do not wake up to the sound of a crowing rooster, which is nature's way of sowing repentance and a turning of mindsets outside the conventional thinking box.

They wake up to beastly clangor instead. It is either the alarm clock or the barking dog, installed as "pets" to yelp any perceived intruder during the morning rush hour. The urban jungle is an industrialized Ziggurat, which pecks out a hierarchy from childhood. The ones right at the bottom will be the ones shouldering more concrete, or the biggest debt burden.

Close human proximity also leads to petty competitiveness and conflict. That is why "civilization" is held at gunpoint; by the police, by the army and by "treaties."

The urban life is delicate and vulnerable to all sorts of hazards, from plagues to a breakdown in the utilities, communications and transportation services. And political upheavals. A disaster will grind down traffic to a gridlock, far from the escapist countryside.

What if an energy warfare broke out? What if a global depression hits us? Can three billion people grow a patch of greens on their balconies?

When it comes to greens, the outlook is not at all verdant...

Peak Grain: Global grain stockpiles are down to their tightest levels in three decades after two years of unusual weather patterns. Heatwaves have wilted crops in the granaries of the world while floods and other environmental scourges have devastated some of the poorer "self-sustaining" regions.

Global wheat stockpiles will fall to a 34-year low by June 2008, according to the International Grains Council. U.S. stockpiles will fall to lowest level since 1951-52. Wheat futures in Chicago reached $9.3925 a bushel late September when major supplier Ukraine slashed exports.

The price of a bushel has more than doubled in the past year.

The bushel of woes includes rice, barley, soybeans, sorghum, oats and lentils as well, and they are all sagging under record prices. The grapes of wrath have gone on to stalk eggs, cheese, milk, meat and the a la carte menu.

There may come a point when the industrial food chain has little choice but to pass the rising costs to consumers in a dramatic fashion.

Creeping upticks in the price of milk and bread are turning Europeans livid. Milk is now dubbed as the "new white gold."

It is not just bad weather to blame. Rising demand from China is pushing up prices, despite the fact that only half of its urban population has basic health insurance. Tragically, processed food re-exported through Beijing's food chain is causing a global health nightmare.

But why pick on China? The current biodiesel craze is inducing farms to purpose-plant their crops for the profitable bioenergy industry, according to the Hamburg-based Oil World.

"It is high time to realise that the world community is approaching a food crisis in 2008 unless usage of agricultural products forwat biofuels is curbed or ideal weather conditions and sharply higher crop yields are achieved in 2008," it added

Bad news gets worse.

Peak Water: There is not enough freshwater around to sustain the planet's inland ecosystem and its human population. Rivers that help supply drinking water are laden with toxic industrial wastes. Population growth is already straining the capacities of water treatment plants worldwide while desalination plants remain the prerogative of wealthy nations.

According to the Pacific Institute: "Over 1 billion people don't have access to clean drinking water; more than 2 billion lack access to adequate sanitation; and millions die every year due to preventable water-related diseases. Water resources around the globe are threatened by climate change, misuse, and pollution." It estimates that "over 34 million people might perish in the next 20 years fromL water-related disease -- even if the United Nations 'Millennium Development Goals,' which aim to cut the proportion of those without safe access by half, are met." [3]

Lots of water will be diverted to industries and agriculture, or the highest bidder as privatization of water supply gains currency. In some regions, the situation is so acute that water diversion in one country may precipitate conflict with a neighbor. As early as 1974, Iraq reportedly mobilized its army to target Syria's al-Thawra dam on the Euphrates. Israel has cast its own eyes on Lebanon's Litani River.

According to Former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, "The next war in the Near (Middle) East will not be about politics, but over water."

If this watery grave is not enough, think of the next one...

Peak Fish: There is some fishy business going on in our oceans. Like oil and water, we are trawling deeper and deeper for our fish supplies. Such piscatorial adventures have led to a global decline in fish stocks. "Ecologists worry that entire fisheries will collapse as... 'junk fish' are used up." Aquaculture, which substitutes marine catches to an extent, comes with its own environmental problems. [4]

The Times of London paints a similar gloomy scenario. According to some experts, 90% of fish around British waters "will disappear within 20 years" in the absence of an immediate intervention.

With 75% of fish stocks fully exploited, declining numbers across species worldwide hint at a collapse point by 2048, beyond which replenishment is not possible.

Peak Fish "comes at a time when their nutritional value is recognized more than ever."

"World Health Organisation officials recommend a weekly intake of 200 to 300 grams of fish each week but today's catches can only just meet this target. Since the 1950s an estimated 60 per cent of stocks in British waters have collapsed..."

The Times invokes the paradox that "measures proposed to limit fishing to a sustainable level will only place a cap on the nutritional flow for the coming decades." [5]

The full circle

What began as sub-prime woes in the US housing sector may ripple into something we cannot yet imagine. Will there be a severe global recession, or worse? If wars are yet contained, bidding wars will yet emerge over wheat, water, fish, medicines and oil. What will the future hold in this ecology of crises?

Here is a refrain from the book of Hosea (4:3):

Because of this the land mourns,
and all who live in it waste away;
the beasts of the field and the birds of the air
and the fish of the sea are dying.

Kuala Lumpur, Oct 9, 2007

Copyright 2007@Mathew Maavak

Reference:

[1] As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes, NYT, Aug 26, 2007

[2] Beijing police round up and beat African expats Guardian, September 26, 2007

[3] Global Water Crisis Pacific Institute.

[4] Water shortages will leave world in dire straits USA Today, 26th Jan 2003

[5] Fish will vanish from British waters in 20 years, says author Times Online, Sept 15, 2007

Most of Mathew Maavak's commentaries can be read here or visit the Panoptic World homepage.

Get prepared now for Monday's State of the Union!!

Just a few of the LIES and distortions from last year's SoU

and what we can expect on Monday ..

It's easy to make ethical/moral attacks on the Bushistas, but alot can be done to expose the lies and distortions, too

Think: Lies, damned lies and the liars that tell them as you listen

you can watch it on on brave new films.org

and while your doing it with out the MSM messing it up

you can post comments, too!

at the bottom, Your Imperial Presidents' radio remarks yesterday

bear in mind that prior to 9/11, the US government had

already intercepted information re terrorism

Dah. So we need to EXPAND a failing program?

RIGHT

Facts Of The Union

January 25, 2007

Bush selects his facts carefully to dress up the State of the Union address.

Summary

We found some puffery in President Bush's State of the Union address. He proposed a 20 percent cut in gasoline use, which turns out to be only an 11 percent decrease from current levels. The President claimed to have cut the federal deficit in half, which hasn't quite happened yet. He trumpeted the 7.2 million jobs created since the worst of the 2003 job slump, ignoring the 2.7 million jobs lost during the first part of his tenure. And once again Bush spoke of "energy independence," though the nation's dependence on imported oil has grown steadily since Bush took office despite all the talk and enactment of his energy legislation.

Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, in a nine-minute response from the Democrats, also chose his data selectively. Trying to put a gloomy cast on a generally upbeat economy, he claimed that worker wages "are at all-time lows as a percentage of national wealth." Webb would have been more accurate had he said "national income" rather than "wealth," but it's true that real wages (after inflation) are rising nicely after a long stagnation.

Analysis

Bush delivered his State of the Union address Jan. 23, concluding that "the State of our Union is strong [and] our cause in the world is right." That broad judgment we'll leave to others to evaluate. Some of the specific facts the President cited, however, we found to be selective, and one we found to be incorrect.

Gasoline Cut

Bush overstated matters when he proposed to slash the nation's use of gasoline by one-fifth over the next decade:

Bush: Let us build on the work we've done and reduce gasoline usage in the United States by 20 percent in the next 10 years.

But, compared to what? In reality, Bush's stated goal is not so grand as he made it sound. A White House "fact sheet" says in the fine print that he's talking about a 20 percent from projected levels, not from what motorists are using today.

There's a big difference. The Energy Information Administration predicts that if current trends continue American motorists will consume 12 percent more gasoline than they do currently by the year 2017. Cutting that projected consumption by 20 percent works out to a level that is just 11 percent less than current consumption. That would still be a historic reversal and a major accomplishment, but roughly half of what Bush's words seemed to promise.

Foreign Oil

Bush – once again – spoke of lessening dependence on Middle Eastern oil and imported oil generally:

Bush: For too long our nation has been dependent on foreign oil.

He didn't mention that the nation has become significantly more dependent on foreign oil during his time in office. According to the Energy Information Administration, the US imported 60.2 percent of the oil it consumed in 2006, up from 52.9 percent in Bill Clinton's last year in office. Dependency has grown in each year of the Bush presidency save one, despite all the talk and enactment of his energy legislation.

Federal Deficit and Fiscal Discipline

Bush called for fiscal restraint and claimed credit for cutting the federal deficit in half:

Bush: What we need is to impose spending discipline in Washington, D.C. We set a goal of cutting the deficit in half by 2009, and met that goal three years ahead of schedule.

Actually, Bush inherited a budget with a comfortable surplus, and then ran up enormous deficits that continue to the present. Under Bush, the national debt (debt held by the public) has increased by more than $1.5 trillion. The annual deficits peaked at $413 billion in fiscal year 2004, and has declined since then. But in fiscal year 2006 (which ended last Oct. 31) the deficit was still $248 billion. The latest estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office project a further reduction in the current fiscal year, to $172 billion. That would indeed be less than half the worst of Bush's deficits, but it would be only two years prior to fiscal 2009, not three.

As for spending restraint, Bush has shown little if any to date. He allowed spending to soar 42 percent during his presidency, and didn't veto a single spending bill. (His only veto was of a bill to loosen restrictions on federally funded stem-cell research.) He did sign massive tax cuts, and revenues increased only 21 percent during the same period.

Education

The President called for reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act, saying:

Bush: Students are performing better in reading and math, and minority students are closing the achievement gap...the No Child Left Behind Act has worked for America's children.

According to the government's own National Center on Education Statistics, the overall achievement gap between minority students and white students has decreased between 2002, when Bush signed the law, and 2005. But the act's impact on math and reading scores is debatable. Students in 4th and 8th grades performed at historic high levels in math in 2005. However, scores had been on the rise since before the law passed. In reading, there was no difference between 4th graders' scores in 2002 and 2005, and the scores of 8th graders actually dropped two points in that interval. The reading scores in 2005 were barely different from those in 1992.

The Economy

When it came to describing the economy, Bush was pretty much on the mark:

Bush: Unemployment is low, inflation is low, and wages are rising.

In fact, the 4.5 percent unemployment rate for December was well below the historical average. For all months since 1948, when the BLS started publishing its current statistical series, the average rate has been 5.6 percent. The current rate is not far above the 4.2 percent rate that prevailed when Clinton left office.

Inflation remains reasonably low. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.5 percent during 2006, less than the 3.4 percent rise of 2005.

And it's also true that wages are rising, and finally rising faster than inflation. According to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average weekly earnings for rank-and-file workers rose 2.1 percent last year even after adjustment for inflation. But last year's rise came after many years of stagnation. In December workers were earning only 2.9 percent more per week than when Bush took office, taking inflation into account.

Job Gain

The President puffed up his description of the economy using an apparently bogus number. And in fact, when we dug into this we found that the White House has been using inflated numbers for job gains for more than four months.

Bush: We're now in the 41st month of uninterrupted job growth, in a recovery that has created 7.2 million new jobs -- so far.

The 7.2 million figure is correct according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, counting an unusually large upward adjustment in the figures for total non-farm employment that the BLS announced in October. However, as in the past, Bush concentrated only on the period since August 2003, which was the low point of the prolonged job slump that plagued the first 2-1/2 years of his presidency. Since 2.7 million jobs were lost that time, the net gain from the time he took office has been 4.6 million jobs, a respectable number but still not so large as the one Bush highlighted.

Democratic Response

In contrast to the President's upbeat description of the economy, Democratic Sen. James Webb of Virginia painted a rather bleak picture:

Webb: Wages and salaries for our workers are at all-time lows as a percentage of national wealth, even though the productivity of American workers is the highest in the world.

As previously mentioned, real wages (after inflation) are actually rising, and certainly not at "an all-time low." When we asked what Webb was talking about, his aides cited a recent article by the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, that cited "unprecedented income inequality." Another liberal-leaning think tank, The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, using data from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, found that wages and salaries as a share of all national income was at an all time low. In other words, income from such things as stock, bonds and rents is rising faster than paychecks.

- by Brooks Jackson, with Viveca Novak, Justin Bank and Emi Kolawole

Sources

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National),"Total Nonfarm Employment , Seasonally Adjusted"

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National, "Average Weekly Earnings, 1982 Dollars"

Energy Information Administration, "Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source," Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030 (Early Release).

Energy Information Administration, "Table 1.7 Overview of U.S. Petroleum Trade."

Aron-Dine, Aviva and Isaac Shapiro. "Share of National income Going to Wages and Salaries Remains At Record Low," Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 16 January 2007.

Mishel, Lawrence and Jared Bernstein. "New data reveal unprecedented income inequality," Economic Policy Institute. 17 Jan 2007.

Related Articles

Misstatement of the Union

The President burnishes the State of the Union through selective facts and strategic omissions.

Bush's State of the Union: Social Security "Bankruptcy?"

That term could give the wrong idea. Bush also makes private accounts sound like a sure thing, which they are not.

DNC State of the Union Attack

A DNC TV ad accuses Bush of breaking his word, but it strains some facts in the process.

What Bush Left Unsaid in State of the Union Address

Forget Weapons of Mass Destruction. Now its "weapons of mass destruction-related program activities."

I spot at least four DISTORTIONS and LIES at work already

Radio Address by the President to the Nation

WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. On Monday night, I will address the American people about the state of our union. I will report that over the last seven years, we've made great progress on important issues at home and abroad. I will also report that we have unfinished business before us, and we must work together to get it done.

In my speech, I will lay out a full plate of issues for Congress to address in the year ahead. Two of these issues require immediate attention.

First is the economy. I know many of you are worried about the risk of an economic downturn, because of the instability in the housing and financial markets. You should know that while economic growth has slowed in recent months, the foundation for long-term growth remains solid. And I believe that with swift action, we can give our economy the boost it needs to continue expanding and creating new jobs for our citizens.

On Thursday, my Administration reached a bipartisan agreement with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader John Boehner on an economic growth package. This package will deliver direct tax relief to hardworking Americans. It will also include incentives for businesses -- including small businesses -- to make new investments this year. I ask the House and Senate to enact this package into law as soon as possible. And while I understand the desire to add provisions from both the left and the right, it would be a mistake to undermine this important bipartisan agreement. By working together, we can provide our economy with a shot in the arm when we need it most.

The other urgent issue before Congress is a matter of national security. Congress needs to provide our intelligence professionals with the tools and flexibility they need to protect America from attack. In August, Congress passed a bill that strengthened our ability to monitor terrorist communications. The problem is that Congress set this law to expire on February 1st. That is next Friday. If this law expires, it will become harder to figure out what our enemies are doing to infiltrate our country, harder for us to uncover terrorist plots, and harder to prevent attacks on the American people.

Congress is now considering a bipartisan bill that will allow our professionals to maintain the vital flow of intelligence on terrorist threats. It would protect the freedoms of Americans, while making sure we do not extend those same protections to terrorists overseas. It would provide liability protection to companies now facing billion-dollar lawsuits because they are believed to have assisted in efforts to defend our Nation following the 9/11 attacks. I call on Congress to pass this legislation quickly. We need to know who our enemies are and what they are plotting. And we cannot afford to wait until after an attack to put the pieces together.

When I go before Congress on Monday, I will speak more about how we can keep our economy strong and our people safe. I am confident that we can work together to meet our responsibilities in these areas -- and leave our children a stronger and more prosperous America.

Thank you for listening.

END

and while we are on DISTORTION,

here is yesterday's bafflegab

Statement by the President

WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--I strongly condemn the terrorist bombing in Beirut that killed Lebanese Internal Security Forces Captain Wissam Eid and many other Lebanese. I extend condolences to the families of the innocent Lebanese killed in this brutal attack and hope for a rapid recovery for all those wounded.

This bombing, the latest in a series of terrorist attacks targeting those who are working to secure Lebanon's independence and sovereignty, is a part of the continuing assault on Lebanon's institutions. We will not falter in our support for the democratically-elected Lebanese government. We renew our call for the immediate selection of a new President in accordance with Lebanon's constitution. We demand that Syria, Iran, and their allies end their interference in and obstruction of Lebanon's political process.

The Lebanese people should be able to enjoy security and liberty without the threat of terrorism, violence, and foreign intimidation. I appreciate the UN's efforts to rapidly stand up the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which will hold accountable those who are responsible for this systematic campaign of murder and intimidation. I urge Lebanon's friends and allies to commit immediately the remaining funds required for the Tribunal to commence its work.

From a prediction of wars to come in 2008 ..

Lebanon: Recent incursions by the Israelis over Lebanese airspace could prefigure another Israeli invasion, this time to prevent Hezbollah and its Christian allies from displacing the increasingly unpopular and beleaguered "pro-Western" government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. All factions are arming themselves, and the country looks ready to slide into yet another civil war, which would almost certainly provoke intervention by several outside interests, including the U.S. and/or Israel. Lebanon is the Balkans of the Middle East: a spark struck there could ignite the whole region.

and this just ran in Voice of America news

Lebanon Delays Presidential Vote for 13th Time
By VOA News 20 January 2008

Lebanon's parliament has again delayed holding a session to elect a new president, postponing the vote for the 13th time.

Speaker Nabih Berri announced Sunday the poll, originally scheduled for Monday, now will be held February 11.

Parliament's ruling pro-Western majority and pro-Syrian opposition factions have agreed on an Arab League-supported plan to install army chief Michel Suleiman as president. But the factions remain divided over a power-sharing deal in the new government.

Some information for this report was provided by AP and Reuters.

Why? Because the White House is determined to undermine democracy in Lebanon!!

- Reminder to truth tellers -

Letter to George W. Bush

Gulf News

Published: January 11, 2008

http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/08/01/11/10180995.html

I went hunting for the Voice of America item I posted and ran

about the US wishing to despose the Lebanese President

but I am damned if I can locate it!!

The VOA archive is of short duration.