Latest poll: Obama takes the lead in Ohio. Bye bye Hitlery
Released: March 03, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle Poll: Too Close To Call! Obama Barely Overtakes Clinton in Ohio and Retains Small Edge in Texas
Republican McCain remains well ahead of Huckabee, but still faces some intra-party opposition
UTICA, New York – The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows. As voters in these two big states prepare to wrap up their voting tomorrow, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other.
The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the party’s proportional delegate apportionment scheme.
| Texas - Democrats | 2-29/3-2 | 2-28/3-1 | 2-27/29 | 2-26/28 |
| Clinton | 44% | 43% | 43% | 42% |
| Obama | 47% | 47% | 45% | 48% |
| Gravel | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Someone else | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Not sure | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
The telephone surveys also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, moving two steps closer to sealing the GOP nomination, as he continues to enjoy a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.
| Ohio - Democrats | 2-29/3-2 | 2-28/3-1 | 2-27/29 | 2-26/28 |
| Clinton | 45% | 47% | 45% | 44% |
| Obama | 47% | 46% | 45% | 42% |
| Gravel | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Someone else | 2% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Not sure | 6% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.
Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterday’s polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.
In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has moved him ahead of Clinton.
Obama continues to lead among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton remains strongest among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.
| Ohio - Republicans | 2-29/3-2 | 2-28/3-1 | 2-27/29 | 2-26/28 |
| McCain | 61% | 61% | 58% | 62% |
| Huckabee | 28% | 27% | 23% | 19% |
| Paul | 5% | 3% | 8% | 8% |
| Someone else | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% |
| Not sure | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
In the GOP races, McCain continues to enjoy a big lead in each state, though Huckabee continues to enjoy solid support as the conservative alternative. Among evangelicals in Texas, he leads McCain, 45% to 44%. Among the very conservative, Huckabee leads, 48% to 41%, but this represents a gain for McCain.
| Texas - Republicans | 2-29/3-2 | 2-28/3-1 | 2-27/29 | 2-26/28 |
| McCain | 53% | 54% | 54% | 53% |
| Huckabee | 33% | 36% | 31% | 27% |
| Paul | 6% | 4% | 7% | 11% |
| Someone else | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% |
| Not sure | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
Among mainline conservatives in Texas, McCain led Huckabee by a 60% to 33% margin. McCain leads 69% to 13% among GOP moderates in Texas. In Ohio, McCain appears to be winning over more of the conservative bloc, as he leads Huckabee 66% to 27% among mainline conservatives. Huckabee leads among Ohio’s very conservative, 48% to 39%. McCain leads 68% to 23% among Ohio moderates. Huckabee does better in the conservative southern tier of Ohio south of I-70, which runs through mid-Ohio and downtown Columbus. McCain is better off in the moderate northern tier.
Pollster John Zogby: The Democratic race has been neck-and-neck in both states, but it has been interesting to watch the volatility under way among Democrats in eastern Texas, which is the swing area of that state. There, one day Clinton would be leading, and the next, Obama would have the edge. Whoever wins east Texas on the Democratic side will win the state. But still, it is important to remember that, because Obama holds huge leads in the Dallas area and in Houston, even if he were to lose the state, the split of delegates will be roughly even between he and Clinton.
The Democratic Party survey in Ohio included 761 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Texas survey of Democrats included 748 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 29 to March 2, 2008.
The Republican survey in Ohio included 674 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Texas survey of Republicans included 628 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 29-March 2, 2008. Percentages in charts may not equal 100% due to rounding.
The surveys were all conducted using live English- and Spanish-speaking telephone operators working in Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York.
For a complete methodological statement, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1282
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