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BULLETIN ITEM: Extraordinary Projection For Solar Cycles

MWM: This is MUST reading. These people, if they are correct, have made a profound breakthrough in cracking part of the riddle of the Solar Activity Cycle, known generally as the Sunspot Cycle. For the close of the Fourth Age, we need I believe at maximum a projection on the next two solar cycles. One of the most profound aspects of this study breakthrough is that it exactly confirms exactly what Walter Russell described during the 1930's in his profound rewrite of cosmology in his work "The Universal One", in which he delinates how the cosmic forces vector the unified field through a torus structure ---- an idea picked up and used to good effect in the camp SF series Dr. Who. Amazing, I have now seen his major ideas "discovered" in facts. Seeing the fundamentals of the solar activity as a tidal phenomenon also coordinates rather well with using the planetary alignments (heliotropic perspective) to "catch" the high tides of the eddy pools we call sunspots. If they are right about the start of the next Sunspot Cycle, we are looking for the next peak in about 2011-2012. Solar Magetic Field reversal should be in about 2012. I hate to tell you what a more active Sun (by 30-50%?) is going to to with the Global Warming Syndrone, which will undergo another round of escalation in the next 24 months through another major surge in volcanism.

From: Pam W pammatiti@yahoo.com
Date: Mon, 6 Mar 2006 23:21:48 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [phoenix-quest] Next solar cycle will be 30 to 50 % stronger

March 6, 2006
NASA AIDS IN RESOLVING LONG STANDING SOLAR CYCLE
MYSTERY

Scientists predict the next solar activity cycle willbe 30 to 50 percent stronger than the previous one andup to a year late.

Accurately predicting the sun's cycles will help plan for the effects of solar storms. The storms candisrupt satellite orbits and electronics; interfere with radio communication; damage power systems; and can be hazardous to unprotected astronauts.

The breakthrough "solar climate" forecast by Mausumi
Dikpati and colleagues at the National Center forAtmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. was made with a combination of computer simulation and ground-breaking
observations of the solar interior from space using
NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

NASA's Living With a Star program and the NationalScience Foundation funded the research.

The sun goes through a roughly 11-year cycle of activity, from stormy to quiet and back again. Solarstorms begin with tangled magnetic fields generated byt he sun's churning electrically charged gas (plasma).

Like a rubber band twisted too far, solar magnetic fields can suddenly snap to a new shape, releasingtremendous energy as a flare or a coronal mass ejection (CME). This violent solar activity often occurs near sunspots, dark regions on the sun caused by concentrated magnetic fields.

Understanding plasma flows in the sun's interior is essential to predicting the solar activity cycle.

Plasma currents within the sun transport, concentrate,
and help dissipate solar magnetic fields. "We understood these flows in a general way, but the details were unclear, so we could not use them to make predictions before,"Dikpati said. Her paper about this research was published in the March 3 online edition of GeophysicalResearch Letters.

The new technique of "helioseismology" revealed these details by allowing researchers to see inside the sun.

Helioseismology traces sound waves reverberating inside the sun to build up a picture of the interior,similar to the way an ultrasound scan is used to create a picture of an unborn baby.Two major plasma flows govern the cycle. The first acts like a conveyor belt. Deep beneath the surface, plasma flows from the poles to the equator. At the equator, the plasma rises and flows back to the poles,where it sinks and repeats. The second flow acts likea taffy pull. The surface layer of the sun rotates faster at the equator than it does near the poles.

Since the large-scale solar magnetic field crosses the equator as it goes from pole to pole, it gets wrapped around the equator, over and over again, by the faster rotation there. This is what periodically concentrates the solar magnetic field, leading to peaks in solarstorm activity."

Precise helioseismic observations of the 'conveyor belt' flow speed by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument on board SOHO gave us a breakthrough,"Dikpati said. "We now know it takes two cycles to fill half the belt with magnetic field and another two cycles to fill the other half. Because of this, the next solar cycle depends on characteristics from as far back as 40 years previously - the sun has a magnetic 'memory'."The magnetic data input comes from the SOHO/MDIinstrument and historical records. Computer analysis of the past eight years'magnetic data matched actual observations over the last 80 years. The team added magnetic data and ran the model ahead 10 years to get their prediction for the next cycle. The sun is in the quiet period for the current cycle (cycle 23).

The team predicts the next cycle will begin with an increase in solar activity in late 2007 or early 2008, and there will be 30 to 50 percent more sunspots, flares, and CMEs in cycle 24. This is about one year later than the prediction using previous methods, which rely on such statistics as the strength of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the number of sunspots to make estimates for the next cycle. This work will be advanced by more detail observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, scheduled to launch in August 2008.

SOHO is a project of international collaboration between NASA and the European Space Agency. For images
explaining the data on the Web,visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/solar_cycle_graphics.html

http://www.pamwiseman.com/