Spy Satellites and surveillance law (think USA 193)

Legal Affairs

New Office to Usher Domestic Use of Spy Satellites

by Pam Fessler

Listen Now [4 min 1 sec] add to playlist

All Things Considered, August 15, 2007 · The Bush administration has decided to expand the government's use of information from U.S. spy satellites for homeland security and domestic law-enforcement purposes. Officials say the change is intended primarily to help them monitor the borders and coastal areas. But it is also raising some serious privacy concerns.

For more than 30 years, domestic agencies have had access to images gathered by U.S. spy satellites. But for the most part, the information has been used for scientific research or to monitor things such as hurricanes and volcanic activity.

Since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, however, intelligence officials have talked about how that information might also be used to help tighten domestic security. Three months ago, National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell authorized his department to make it easier for civilian agencies and law enforcement to access the spy satellite network.

The decision occurred in late May, though it has only come to light recently, and was first reported in The Wall Street Journal. This fall, a new office will be set up inside the Homeland Security Department to act as a clearinghouse for all domestic agencies wanting to use spy satellite data.

Charles Allen, who heads intelligence activities for the Department of Homeland Security, says the satellite images have a lot of potential uses, especially when it comes to protecting the border and securing the nation's ports. He says the images can also be used to monitor security at major infrastructure sites, such as bridges and dams.

Allen says there will be guidelines on how the information can be used, and what legal requirements must be met.

"This is not going to be anything unusual," Allen says. "It's going to be simply an expansion of current activities and a more formalized way of doing some of the things that have been done ad hoc."

Allen says he hopes next year to expand use of the imagery — on what he calls a limited case-by-case basis — to domestic law-enforcement. That change has privacy advocates especially worried.

"We're talking about using very powerful technology directed on American soil," says Jim Dempsey, policy director at the Center for Democracy and Technology.

"It will inevitably pick up information about U.S. citizens and that's what calls for protection under the Constitution. That's what calls for judicial review and a real search warrant."

Dempsey says it's not at all clear what systems will be put in place to prevent abuse.

Stephen Aftergood, who directs the Project on Government Secrecy for the Federation of American Scientists, says it might make sense to use spy satellites to protect the country, but that the increase in government authority and intelligence should be balanced by an increase in oversight. "And right now, the oversight capability seems a bit anemic."

Aftergood noted the recent decision by Congress to extend the administration's ability to conduct warrantless wiretaps. But Allen, of Homeland Security, says Americans have nothing to worry about. He says his operation will be overseen by government auditors, as well as by Congress.

Keith Hall, former Director of the National Reconnaissance Office, which operates the spy satellites, says there's another reason people shouldn't be overly concerned.

"The capabilities we're talking about here really cannot be used to target an individual…" Hall says. "You just can do so much when you're 200 miles up in space in terms of what you can discern about what's going on on the face of the Earth."

Hall headed a 2005 study that recommended exactly what the government is now doing. He says that even with the limitations, spy satellites can be a very effective tool when trying to monitor activity at remote areas of the border, or to find potential evacuation routes during disasters.

Related NPR Stories

• Aug. 6, 2007
  Surveillance Law: What's in It?
• Aug. 15, 2007
  What Can Satellites Do for Domestic Spying?
• Aug. 8, 2007
  High-Tech Spy Tools Aren't Just for James Bond
• Aug. 3, 2007
  U.S. Court Restricts International Spying Capability

Access to Spy Satellite Data Over the U.S. for Law Enforcement

posted by Satri on Thursday August 16, @12:24PM Permalink Trackback URI Slashdotthis Diggthis Del.icio.us
from the spies-like-us dept.

Slashdot discuss a story about the U.S. Department of Homeland Security which will start sharing U.S. spy satellite data with law enforcement and other customers. Their summary: "...one of [DHS]'s first objectives will be to use the network to enhance border security, determine how best to secure critical infrastructure and help emergency responders after natural disasters. Sometime next year, officials will examine how the satellites can aid federal and local law-enforcement agencies, covering both criminal and civil law... DHS officials say the program has been granted a budget by Congress and has the approval of the relevant committees in both chambers... Unlike electronic eavesdropping, which is subject to legislative and some judicial control, this use of spy satellites is largely uncharted territory... [A CDT spokesman said] 'Not only is the surveillance they are contemplating intrusive and omnipresent, it's also invisible. And that's what makes this so dangerous." All Points Blog adds a link the NPR articles on the subject.

See recent BuZh executive order on surveillance . now handled exclusively by Michael Mukasey. Fab, eh??

Starboard bow view showing the Civilian Contracted Marlin Class; Semi-submersible Heavy Lift Ship, Motor Vessel (MV) BLUE MARLIN, underway as it enters the harbor at Naval Base (NB) Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (HI), after completing a 15,000-mile journey while transporting the massive Sea Based X-Band Radar (SBX). The SBX is a combination of the worlds largest phased array X-band radar carried aboard a mobile, ocean-going semi-submersible oil platform. Camera Operator: JO2 RYAN C. MCGINLEY, USN Date Shot: 9 Jan 2006

Download Hi-Res

Port side view showing the Civilian Contracted Marlin Class; Semi-submersible Heavy Lift Ship, Motor Vessel (MV) BLUE MARLIN, being assisted by commercial tugboats, as it enters the harbor at Naval Base (NB) Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (HI), after completing a 15,000-mile journey while transporting the massive Sea Based X-Band Radar (SBX). The SBX is a combination of the worlds largest phased array X-band radar carried aboard a mobile, ocean-going semi-submersible oil platform. A rainbow can be seen in the background. Camera Operator: JOC JOE KANE, USN Date Shot: 9 Jan 2006

Download Hi-Res

12 January 2006. A writes and sends Google photo:

Google Earth has a satellite picture of the platform in Brownsville -- I'd guess it was taken in early 2004, probably March or April. BTW, though MDA clearly doesn't like to talk about it, the platform itself (formerly called "Moss Sirius") was built at the Vyborg shipyard in Russia on order from the Norwegian firm Moss Maritime.

http://www.rina.org.uk/rfiles/navalarchitect/russia_sep_02.pdf

11 January 2006

---

Concept image.

http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/space/gmd/news/2006/q1/060110d_nr.html

Boeing Sea-Based X-Band Radar Completes Transport through the Straits of Magellan and Arrives in Pearl Harbor

ST. LOUIS, Jan. 10, 2006 -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] announced today the arrival in Hawaii of the Sea-Based X-Band Radar (SBX) built for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. This marks an interim stop in the vessel's transport operation, originating in the Gulf of Mexico and maneuvering through the Straits of Magellan, ultimately destined for Adak, Alaska.

A major sensor for the Missile Defense Agency's ground-based midcourse defense program (GMD), the SBX will provide the capability to track ballistic missiles and their warheads, discriminate among various objects in flight, and provide data for intercepting targets and their destruction. The addition of the SBX to MDA's missile defense system is another key milestone toward the evolution of a layered and integrated Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS).

"The arrival of SBX in the Pacific builds on the momentum of the GMD program, which recently conducted a successful flight test and installed its 10th operational interceptor missile at Fort Greely," said Pat Shanahan, Boeing Missile Defense Systems vice president and general manager. "The SBX is a one-of-a-kind platform that will perform essential sensing functions for the Ballistic Missile Defense System. It can be deployed worldwide; it can sense small objects thousands of miles away; it can provide critical data on incoming ballistic missile threats; and it is the only platform of its type in the world. No other platform within the BMDS provides all these attributes."

Prior to its departure on its journey around South America through the Straits of Magellan, integration, assembly and test of the radar and platform were conducted at Corpus Christi, Texas. Following a series of sea trials, the SBX was transported into the Pacific Ocean aboard a commercial heavy transport vessel, the motor vessel Blue Marlin, which is owned and operated by Dockwise Shipping B.V. of Breda, The Netherlands.

The radar will join other land and sea-based radars and space-based sensors, to support the overall ballistic missile defense capability, with initial integration into the command, control, communication and battle management system for the long-range interceptor missiles located in Alaska and California, improving their ability to defend against a limited long-range ballistic missile attack on the United States. Home-ported in Adak, a small island located in the Aleutian Island chain, the SBX will be able to move throughout the Pacific Ocean, or any of the world's oceans, in support of advanced missile defense testing and defensive operations.

The SBX program team completed important milestones despite challenges throughout last year's intensive hurricane season. During scheduled program operations, the radar tracked orbiting satellites, which demonstrated key functionality. The program completed more than 100 test activities, demonstrating its ability to achieve major sustainment and operational capabilities, including: transferring personnel, supplies and fuel, performing at-sea maintenance and the ability to operate at sea for extended periods.

Boeing is the prime contractor for the GMD program. Industry partners include: Raytheon, who manufactured the X-band radar; Kiewet OffShore Services where the radar was constructed and integrated onto the SBX; Moss Maritime, who supplied the platform; Keppel-AmFELS, who modified the platform with Boeing; and Vertex/RSI, who worked on the radar structure.

The satellite shootdown!! On video, the DoD speaks

U.S. Spy Satelite Shot Down - Ballistic Missile Intercept



Why do they send these POOOOOOY suns up into space? How clinical the US DoD speaks. What makes them think that the atmosphere is NOT part of the earth, anyway?

SHAME!! SHAME!!

We are talking here about toxic gas, not little pieces of debris ...

FOR SHAME! Shame! Shame! Shame!

"Successful intersept" makes it sound like a video game, it's NOT.

Gen. James Cartwright says the Navy was successful in its effort to shoot down an inoperable spy satellite. The shooting down of the satelite will cost up to $60 million.

The fuel tank probably would have survived re-entry if the satellite had fallen to Earth on its own. It could have dispersed harmful or even potentially deadly fumes over an area the size of two football fields. Hydrazine is similar to chlorine or ammonia in that it affects the lungs and breathing tissue.

The Chinese military destroyed an aging weather satellite last year, prompting questions about whether the United States is merely flexing its muscle to show an economic and military rival that it can destroy satellites, too.

James Jeffrey, deputy national security adviser, denied such allegations this week. "This is all about trying to reduce the danger to human beings," he said.

But Beijing appears to have doubts.

"China is continuing to closely follow the possible harm caused by the U.S. action to outer space security and relevant countries," Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said Thursday.

Dan Froomkin: George Bush Space Cowboy

By Dan Froomkin

Special to washingtonpost.com
Thursday, February 21, 2008; 12:16 PM

President Bush now has something else to add to his legacy: A significant milestone in the militarization of space.

Josh White and Marc Kaufman write for The Washington Post this morning: "Military officials have a 'high degree of confidence' that they were able to hit and destroy the tank of potentially dangerous fuel aboard a wayward spy satellite orbiting Earth last night, but they said they must still monitor the debris to be certain it does not pose further risk of reentering the atmosphere in coming days."

But consider this: "Before last night's intercept, some experts had expressed doubts about the seriousness of the risk posed by the falling satellite and questioned whether the shot was an excuse to perform an anti-satellite test that many people around the world found controversial," White and Kaufman write.

"Scientists, arms-control advocates and others said the shoot-down was based on questionable modeling by the government of the risks to human health and was a danger to the future peaceful use of space. . . .

"Some worried that the U.S. decision to adapt a rocket designed for missile defense to serve as an anti-satellite weapon would encourage other nations to experiment with their own anti-satellite technology. . . .

"Though [Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,] and other defense officials said the effort was not a test of the nation's missile defense system, nor a show of force to other countries that the U.S. can take down a satellite, the operation makes it clear that the missile defense system can be modified very quickly to accomplish such a task."

John Barry writes for Newsweek that the satellite, "USA 193, weighing around 5,000 pounds, is the size of a school bus. But . . . [t]hree-quarters of the earth's surface is water. Ninety-five percent is uninhabited. Suppose USA 193's debris were to cover a few square miles, which is a plausible estimate. The earth's surface is 197 million square miles -- all but one-20th of which is uninhabited. . . .

"The detailed rationale given by administration officials for the shoot-down makes little more sense. USA 193 carries on board a tank of hydrazine, the fuel U.S. satellites use to change orbit in space. . . . Hydrazine is moderately toxic, with effects akin to chlorine gas. The hydrazine cloud from USA 193's tank would, if released, diffuse over an area of roughly two football fields. The cloud would dissipate in minutes. Nevertheless, we are told, that is the risk that impelled President Bush to order the satellite's midair destruction."

Bryan Bender writes in the Boston Globe that Admiral Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, yesterday "stressed that the United States has gone out of its way to assuage any concerns of foreign nations that the mission was also being used to test the military's ability to destroy the satellites of other countries."

Nevertheless, "China and Russia have both expressed concerns that the launch was meant to test a new antisatellite weapon."

Bruce W. MacDonald and Charles D. Ferguson write in a Los Angeles Times op-ed that "the administration put at risk multiple U.S. security interests -- a high price to pay to offset that highly unlikely danger.

"The administration has insisted that it was not trying to test the anti-satellite capabilities of the Navy's Aegis missile defense system, but that was exactly the result. The action was similar to China's unwise anti-satellite test in January 2007: An interceptor missile was launched, releasing a warhead meant to destroy the target satellite. . . .

"Just as China did, the U.S. was demonstrating its anti-satellite capability, stepping briefly across a dangerous threshold, undercutting American and international criticism of China and threatening an arms race in space. . . .

"Washington should not be surprised when Beijing exploits this launch to justify its own burgeoning anti-satellite program. The U.S. action will give China, Russia and others an excuse to develop and test comparable capabilities, claiming that they too need to keep their populations safe from falling satellites. China may well feel freed from the pledge it made last year not to test its anti-satellite weapons again."

The USA Today editorial board writes that the destruction of the satellite "might be just what the White House says it is: a well-intentioned effort to destroy a school bus-sized contraption carrying toxic fuel before it can threaten lives on the ground.

"But because the administration seemed willing as recently as last month to let the satellite plummet to Earth unmolested -- figuring that much of it would be burned up in a fiery re-entry and the rest would have little chance of hitting anyone on the planet's vast expanse -- it's not surprising that the shoot-down plan is generating suspicion. Critics such as Russia's Defense Ministry say the real motive is to test U.S. space weapons capability."

The destruction of the satellite also creates great PR for Bush's otherwise largely unsuccesful and hugely expensive missile defense program.

Ivan Oelrich, vice president for strategic programs at the Federation of American Scientists, was Live Online on washingtonpost.com yesterday. "I can't read minds so I don't know motivations but I suspect that one motivation is that this is a great political boost to the missile defense system," he wrote. "People don't make much distinction between missile defense and anti-satellite intercepts. So here is this 'grave' danger from space, we fire a rocket at it and, poof, the danger is gone. Aren't you glad we spent the billions of dollars on that missile defense system? . . .

"I believe that a reasonably skeptical person can be forgiven that there is more going on here than the administration claims."

As for the risks, Oelrich wrote: "To put this in some perspective, the US produces 36,000,000 pounds of hydrazine every year. The world 130,000,000 pounds. This is transported around the country in trucks and on trains. At any given moment FAR more hydrazine is being shipped on the country's highways, through towns and cities and inhabited areas, than the amount on this satellite. (And far more dangerous materials, like chlorine.) So I do not buy the public safety argument. If the administration were concerned about public safety, they would take the millions of dollars spent on this intercept and spend it on traffic lights at a dangerous intersection or on vaccines for children."

Gail Collins writes in her New York Times opinion colum today: "Small, paranoid minds wondered if the government was not being completely forthright about its motives. The weapons the military mobilized to do the shooting are part of the missile defense system. Some people think the whole poison-gas story is just an excuse to give the Pentagon a chance to test its hardware.

"This is only conceivable if you can imagine that the people who are in charge of intelligence-gathering might attempt to mislead the American public."

See also:

China Aims High

Beijing's blast sets off a debate about how to protect U.S. satellites

By Kevin Whitelaw

Posted December 4, 2007

US News and World Report

Some of the U.S. soldiers stationed in Iraq's troubled Anbar province most likely wondered why the Air Force was sending a space weapons expert to help them fight Sunni insurgents. But U.S. forces there had a tough problem. Traditional artillery was too inaccurate for urban hotbeds like Fallujah, and insurgents took cover when they heard attack aircraft overhead.

More on link above ..

The Satellite update!! Thursday morning 2/21/2008

Operation Rogue Satellite search

Navy Missile Hits Spy Satellite, Results Still Unclear

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: February 20, 2008

The webite ny20.com is blocked and at this time I have no idea of the results of the shootdown. The spread out of debris not known, and they DoD has shut down my usual access to information points - it is all wait and see.

My root question is: why did they put it up there in the first place? and when they knew it was messed up - did they wait until a Toronto resident spotted it falling and it was reported it to the NYT's before saying anything? How are the First Responders doing?

How's NORTHCOM doing in all of this??

How many red phones have been used to try to avert an international diplomatic, crisis? Was this the first instance of the US China red phone, and "how's its workin for ya", as Dr. Phil would say? Wouldn't some say now it was a dandy idea? Why did it take a toxic satelllite failure to get this initiative underway?

What sort of oversight was provided to this whole operation? I've chased down the teams who worked on this? How worried were they and how worried are they now? Give Crytologic Systems a google. Learn about Kauai Kona Hawaii.

What part is the Joint Environmental Security Program playing in all this? Why are all their documents so dated?

Was the information on hydrazine and berrillium given out just a "hoax".

Was conintelpro given proper briefing time to screw up all the websites that might investigate what would happen?

When will the destructiveness of the "full sprectrum dominance" initiative become clear to everyone - or does Robert Gates really think it works? The Cosmos is sending up signals that this is a very bad idea is it not?

What did HAARP have to do with all this - I mean really have to do with it?

Can I get someone to buy me a ticket and accomodation to the asteroids, meteors and comets conference coming up in July??

Who believes the Pentagon any more?

Was getting ready for this spysat crash the reason that plans for martial law were released on the internet?

Have we been sufficiently scared out of our wits about all this YET??

When you find out answers, please report back to me.

Veegermatic
Spiritual Warrioress

Filed at 10:53 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A missile launched from a Navy ship successfully struck a dying U.S. spy satellite passing 130 miles over the Pacific on Wednesday, a defense official said. Full details were not immediately available.

It happened just after 10:30 p.m. EST.

Two officials said the missile was launched successfully. One official, who is close to the process, said it hit the target. He said details on the results were not immediately known.

The goal in this first-of-its-kind mission for the Navy was not just to hit the satellite but to obliterate a tank aboard the spacecraft carrying 1,000 pounds of a toxic fuel called hydrazine.

U.S. officials have said the fuel would pose a potential health hazard to humans if it landed in a populated area. Although the odds of that were small even if the Pentagon had chosen not to try to shoot down the satellite, it was determined that it was worth trying to eliminate even that small chance.

Officials said it might take a day or longer to know for sure if the toxic fuel was blown up.

9:30 PM Mountain, February 20, 2008 - Pentagon Says Missile
Hit Spy Satellite Tonight.

“Confirmation that the fuel tank has been fragmented should be available
within 24 hours. Nearly all of the debris will burn up on re-entry within 24 to 48 hours
and the remaining debris should re-enter within 40 days.” - Pentagon Press Release

The Pentagon reports tonight the U. S. Navy launched a missile attack from an American Navy ship that struck the broken USA-193 spy satellite at 130 miles over the Pacific. The newes release was not clear whether the operation succeeded in its main goal of destroying a tank aboard the satellite that carried the toxic fuel described as hydrazine that U.S. officials said could pose a hazard to humans and animals if it lands in a populated area.

“How the missile hits the satellite will affect how quickly the debris re-enters and what the velocity is between the objects and how they hit. Are they attempting to get most of the debris to come down in the Pacific almost immediately? Or, over the course of two or three revolutions, is most of it going to start to fall out?” - Bob Hall, AGI Computer Models

Possible image of American spy satellite,
USA-193 (NROL-21). Image source unclear.

Out-of-control American spy satellite, USA-193, also known as NROL-21, was launched aboard a Delta II rocket on December 14, 2006, from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Shortly after the satellite reached orbit, ground controllers lost contact with it. Space.com reports, “Though the satellite's objective is secret, many believe it is probably a high-resolution radar satellite intended to produce images for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).” The goal now is to destroy the crippled satellite with a Standard Missile 3. China did the same thing in 2007 by attacking its Fengyun-1C weather satellite, which produced a lot of space debris. The American spy satellite is already falling toward earth, so the February 20th attack on it will be much lower than the Chinese debris - thus, perhaps burning up faster.

Current Facts

USA-193 has a mass of about 5,015 pounds (2,275 kilograms).
Standard Missile 3 would be fired from a Navy ship in the North Pacific Ocean.
Interception would occur at an altitude of about 149 miles (240 kilometers).
Missile would close on USA-193 at a velocity of about 22,783 mph (36,667 kph).

Video: Satellite Shoot-Down, Simulated (Updated)

By Noah Shachtman February 21, 2008 | 8:27:00 AMCategories: Missiles, Space, Video Fix

UPDATED AND EDITED: The Navy has shot down a dying spy satellite. Now the question is: what happens to the debris? The folks over at Analytical Graphics and Applied Defense Solutions have put together a statistical simulation of one likely scenario.

Analytical Graphics (AGI) works up these sorts of sims all the time, for scientific- and defense-oriented space programs. The trajectory for John Hopkins' exploration of Pluto was plotted with AGI's help, for example. "Every branch of the military" uses their software, AGI's Timothy Carrico says. The Air Force's 22nd Space Operations Squadron uses their products to help crunch collision-avoidance data for more than 80 satellites, according to Peter J. Brown at Via Satellite magazine. And AGI created a more accurate orbit determination system for the Naval Satellite Operations Center.

What makes the sims special is the injection of real-world physics. Unlike the zippy little animations you'll see on the evening news, every piece of debris in this satellite shoot-down model has been given its own mass, area, speed, velocity and drag.

Not every element of this particular model is hyper-realistic, however. AGI put together a sim based on the Pentagon's assertion that 50 percent of the debris would burn up in the atmosphere during the first two passes. The model was set up also for the north Pacific, generally -- not for the specific no-fly zone that the Navy has now carved out. [UPDATE: A new video, featured above, now has the missile launching from the proper place.] The mass and area of the debris is uniformly distributed (although changes in velocity and direction are more natural).

Still, this is about as realistic a simulation you're going to see. For now.

Continue reading "Video: Satellite Shoot-Down, Simulated (Updated)" »

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Wham! Navy Blasts Rogue Satellite

By Noah Shachtman February 21, 2008 | 7:34:47 AMCategories: Missiles, Space

"A U.S. Navy cruiser blasted a disabled spy satellite with a pinpoint missile strike that achieved the main mission of exploding a tank of toxic fuel 130 miles above the Pacific Ocean," the AP reports.

Destroying the satellite's onboard tank of about 1,000 pounds of hydrazine fuel was the primary goal, and a senior defense official close to the mission said Thursday that it appears the tank was destroyed, and the strike with a specially designed missile was a complete success.

More pics here, and more to come, naturally...

Continue reading "Wham! Navy Blasts Rogue Satellite" »

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Wildlife Refuge Braces for Spy Sat Rain

By Noah Shachtman February 21, 2008 | 4:27:00 AMCategories: Missiles, Space

The military may be warning sailors and pilots to keep away from that part of the Pacific where a dying satellite is due to get taken down.

But, as the New York Post notes, "no one in the government has said anything to the 70 people who live on Midway, who are mostly government workers and contractors associated with the Fish and Wildlife Service refuge on the island."

"They haven't called us. Maybe they should," refuge manager Barry Christenson told The Post.

Told that the satellite is about the size of a bus, Christensen said he saw the potential for calamity.

"That would just crush our island - we're just a bunch of sand sitting on top of coral," he said. "Even if it landed out in the lagoon, it could send up a heck of a wave."

(Pound: JA)

Spy satellite shootdown depends on weather

Pentagon says high seas may delay mission until at least Thursday

For deeper information simply press on the links below. So many lies about this - so little time to figure what is what.

This article may appear long, but it's leaving out the crucial information about hydrezine and berrilium threats to civilian populations.

Nor does it mention the plans to declare martial law if "things go wrong". They went wrong the minute they planned this satellite, the reasons they built the satellite are wrong, and this could conceivably go much more wrong, wrong, wrong.

MSNBC News Services

updated 9:24 a.m. CT, Wed., Feb. 20, 2008

WASHINGTON - High seas in the north Pacific may force the Navy to wait another day before launching a heat-seeking missile on a mission to shoot down a wayward U.S. spy satellite, the Defense Department said Wednesday.

Weather conditions are one of many factors that U.S. military officers are taking into account as they decide whether to proceed with the mission Wednesday or to put it off, according to a senior military officer who briefed reporters at the Pentagon on condition that he not be identified.

The officer said the assumption had been that the mission would go forward Wednesday night, unless conditions are determined to be unfavorable. Earlier in the day, bad weather in the north Pacific was causing high seas, which may be a problem for the USS Lake Erie, a cruiser armed with two SM-3 missiles, and the USS Decatur, which has one missile. According to NBC News sources, the Lake Erie will likely fire first, with the Decatur "shadowing" the other cruiser in case of trouble with the launch.

"We don't anticipate the weather being good enough today," the officer said, adding that conditions could improve enough in the hours ahead to permit it to go forward. A final decision would be made by Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

The Pentagon had been waiting until the space shuttle Atlantis returned to Earth before launching the missile.

"We're now into the window," the senior military officer said minutes after the shuttle landed.

He said the mission could go forward on any day until Feb. 29, when the satellite is projected to have re-entered the Earth's atmosphere, making it infeasible to attempt to hit it with the Navy missile.

"We're watching weather today," he said. The ground rules of the news conference were that the official could not be quoted by name.

The military will be making decisions each day on whether to proceed with an attempt or not — and criteria could change several times each day, he said.

The attempted shootdown was approved by President Bush out of concern that toxic fuel on board the satellite could crash to earth, the Defense Department has said.

Officials will know nearly immediately whether the missile has hit the satellite, but it will take a day or two to know whether the fuel tank has been destroyed, officials said. About an hour after the attempt, the Pentagon will release a written statement, followed by a briefing on the situation the following morning.

The attempted shootdown was approved by President Bush out of concern that toxic fuel on board the satellite could crash to Earth.

An attempt to blast a crippled U.S. spy satellite out of the sky using a Navy heat-seeking missile — possibly on Wednesday night — would be the first real-world use of this piece of the Pentagon's missile defense network. But that is not the mission for which it was intended.

The three-stage Navy missile, designated the SM-3, has chalked up a high rate of success in a series of tests since 2002 — in each case targeting a short- or medium-range ballistic missile, never a satellite. A hurry-up program to adapt the missile for this anti-satellite mission was completed in a matter of weeks; Navy officials say the changes will be reversed once this satellite is down.

The government issued notices to aviators and mariners to remain clear of a section of the Pacific beginning at 10:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, indicating the first window of opportunity to launch an SM-3 missile from a Navy cruiser, the USS Lake Erie, in an effort to hit the wayward satellite.

Having lost power shortly after it reached orbit in late 2006, the satellite is well below the altitude of a normal satellite. The Pentagon wants to hit it with an SM-3 missile just before it re-enters Earth's atmosphere, in that way minimizing the amount of debris that would remain in space.

Adding to the difficulty of the mission, the missile will have to do better than just hit the bus-sized satellite, a Navy official said Tuesday. It needs to strike the relatively small fuel tank aboard the spacecraft in order to accomplish the main goal, which is to eliminate the toxic fuel that could injure or even kill people if it reached Earth. The Navy official described technical aspects of the missile's capabilities on condition that he not be identified.

Also complicating the effort will be the fact that the satellite has no heat-generating propulsion system on board. That makes it more difficult for the Navy missile's heat-seeking system to work, although the official said software changes had been made to compensate for the lack of heat.

The Pentagon press secretary, Geoff Morrell, said Defense Secretary Robert Gates was briefed on the shootdown plan Tuesday by the two officers who will advise him on exactly when to launch the missile — Gen. Kevin Chilton, the head of Strategic Command, and Gen. James Cartwright, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who held Chilton's post until last summer.

"We all have an agreed-upon series of steps that need to be taken for this launch to be given the go-ahead," Morrell said, adding that no final decision has been made on when to make the attempt.

"The secretary is the one who will decide if and when to pull the trigger," the spokesman said, adding that Gates was departing Wednesday morning on an around-the-world trip that will include a stop in Honolulu, Hawaii, where a military command center will be monitoring the satellite operation.

Left alone, the satellite would be expected to hit Earth during the first week of March. About half of the 5,000-pound spacecraft would be expected to survive its blazing descent through the atmosphere and would scatter debris over several hundred miles.

Known by its military designation US 193, the satellite was launched in December 2006. It lost power and its central computer failed almost immediately afterward, leaving it uncontrollable. It carried a sophisticated and secret imaging sensor.

Morrell said the cost of adapting the Navy anti-missile system for the shootdown mission was $30 million to $40 million.

China and Russia have expressed concern at the planned shootdown, saying it could harm security in outer space. At the State Department on Tuesday, spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters that the U.S. action is meant to protect people from the hazardous fuel and is not a weapons test.

China was criticized last year when it used a missile to destroy a defunct weather satellite.

The Navy ship-based system, which includes a command-and-control and radar system known as Aegis, as well as the SM-3 missiles, is just one segment of a larger, far-flung missile defense system that has been in development by the American military for more than three decades.

Managed by the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, the program includes interceptor missiles sitting in underground silos at Fort Greely, Alaska, and at Vanderberg Air Force Base, Calif., as well as radars around the world that are used to track an enemy missile and help the interceptor hit it.

As currently configured the missile defense system is designed mainly to counter a threat from North Korea. The Bush administration, fearing an emerging missile threat from Iran, is in talks with Poland and the Czech Republic to place interceptor missiles in Poland and a tracking radar in the Czech Republic. Russia has objected strenuously, saying such bases would be a threat to Russia.

© 2008 MSNBC Interactive

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23253805/

This morning's updates on the satellite debris

From an email from someone who has gone to Oregon ..

... Just let people know that you spoke to me and I am getting maps, charts etc... ready for people to view. The situation is EXTREMELY dire and it's not looking good for the Northwest. The only other option that have would be to strike the satellite while it's travelling south and this won't be an option because the fallout zones would include parts of Russia and The Republic of China (among other coutries), but there's no way we are going to take the chance of them getting the satellite (what survives).***

Current position of Satellite USA 193 - 20 February

Heaven Above's tracking of USA 193 fact sheet

Decaying spy satellite USA 193

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There has been much discussion in the news media recently concerning this satellite and when and where is will come back to Earth. We would like to use this page to summarise what is known and not known.

Launch

USA 193 was launched on December 14th, 2006 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The launch vehicle was a Delta II. Shortly after reaching orbit, ground controllers lost the ability to control the satellite, and have never regained it.

Purpose

The exact design and purpose of USA 193 are, or course, closely guarded secrets, but specialists believe it is probably a high resolution radar satellite which was intended to produce images for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

When and where will it hit the Earth ?

This is the question which interests most people, and unfortunately very difficult to answer. The satellite is being slowed down by friction with the tenuous upper atmosphere and losing height steadily, as can be seen in the plot below, which shows the orbital height over the last year. As it sinks further, the atmospheric density increases and so does the friction, making the descent faster and faster. Re-entry will happen when the height reaches about 100km.

Predicting exactly when and where it will re-enter the atmosphere and burn up is like trying to predict what the weather will be like in a months time - there are too many uncertainties. All that can be said now is that the re-entry will be some time around the end of March. As time passes, and the satellite gets lower, more accurate predictions of the time will be possible, but even a day before, it will be difficult to say exactly where in the orbit it will happen.

What are the risks ?

Fortunately, the risk to people on the ground is extremely low. The Earth is large and two-thirds of it is covered by ocean. Most of the satellite will burn up in the upper atmosphere, but a few large pieces are expected to survive the re-entry and fall to Earth. It would be very unlikely for any of them to hit someone.

Where is USA 193 now ?

You can see the current position in the ground track below.

Can I see it before re-entry?

USA 193 is large and is now in a very low orbit, so it should be quite bright and easy to see with the unaided eye. Click here for predictions for your location.