The Quietly Building War Clouds

Peoplenomics.com 14 September 2006


You probably don't like thinking about World War IV any more than I do, yet we continue to see large-scale military positioning going on globally which has the potential to be part of the "set-up" for global conflict. First, on the purely military front:

Chinese media report today that NATO commanders have failed to respond to calls for more UN forces to fight the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.
Poland, however, is sending more forces in.

While US is trying to support high participation by NATO in Afghanistan, the main US front in the Resource and Religious Wars continues to be Iraq where a Sunni leader says the entire political process in country could collapse as a result of sectarian fighting.

Not that US policy in Iraq is successful; besides the 60+ bodies found dead of sectarian terror, we note that UN Secretary General Kofi Annan reports the Middle East leaders he has spoken with call our gunpoint democracy efforts a 'disaster." 10 more dead today in bombings and shootings in Iraq.

As if that weren't enough, the chief judge in the Saddam Hussein trial in Baghdad is quoted as saying to Saddam: "You were not a dictator." Naturally, this sets up the prospect of the Hussein trial turning into a policy nightmare/train wreck for the Bush administration's hand-picked Iraqi government, especially since disclosure last week of previously secret reports that clear Hussein of any links to al Qaeda. Those facts notwithstanding, US Veep Dick Cheney is trying to spin his way out of pre Iraq invasion claims that there was a link.

Iran meanwhile continues to play rhetoric and the calendar: Iran's president says UN sanctions are unlikely on the one hand, but the US continues to push for action against Iran on the other.
While the footwork continues in the Middle East, the US and Europe are waging a wider but quiet political war in what used to be the Soviet buffer states.

The West seems to have the upper hand in the hearts and minds - but it's really the pocketbook - battle for influence in the Ukraine. Chinese report the EU is talking about a Free Trade Area for Ukraine.

In Georgia, as well, the US seems to be setting up some mutual defense sounding arrangements. There have been rumors in Georgia that Russia's Vlad Putin would back a coup in order to overthrow the "too West-leaning" Georgian government - but it's not true says the Kremlin.
Then there's Belarus, where a state-like relationship with Russia may come up for a vote. But, if it does, the US and EU are being asked in advance not to recognize the vote by pro-West opposition leaders. Shouldn't be a problem, the US seems to acknowledge democratic processes only if they serve the corpgov interests of the US...

And then we get around to following the money:

A key Russian central banker was assassinated today. The press reports seem to characterize this as a "contract hit" by shady financial figures.

And the recent weakness in oil prices have led to renewed hopes in Japan among auto makers that same-old same-old growth will continue... so the Japanese market rallied.

Still, most people probably aren't worried about events between now and when open warfare seems likely to break out later this year...so long as the tock market just keeps perking along.

Peak Oil? Not by this Guy...

Of course he's a Saudi oil exec - and the Saudis are looking for $25 billion to invest in infrastructure - and they're already pumping at capacity and, and, and...Still, the claim is the world has only tapped 18% of available supply. He may be right, but if the economics require $5000 a barrel to develop untapped, we'd call that as good as shut-in.

Soft Landing Indicator?
Home Loan Demand rose for a 2nd week says the Mortgage Banker's Association

$700 Gold
That's one forecast out today - and with gold firming up, I can only offer two bits of advice: First, I'm not a "noise trader" so ups and downs don't bother me. The other bit of advice for my precious metals detractors? "Sit on it and twirl."

The Right Votes
Interesting read out of the Argus about how non-voters tend to be more liberal than their voting right-leaning counterparts. Of course, because the non-voters don't vote, we end up with more conservative/corporatist government than the true center of America favors.

Uniformed Prayer Case
A Navy chaplain was convicted yesterday for wearing his uniform at what the Navy says was a political event, but the chaplain argued he attended in his chaplain role.

Name Change?
I need your advice. As you know, I have a web site called the "Independence Journal" where I've posted a bit about semi-rural life. http://www.independencejournal.com/. It occurred to me (on about page 10 of "Origins of Brands" that UrbanSurvival might have more readers if the name was less...well..."Out in Idaho somewhere sounding." (No offense to the Boise crowd...)

When I periodically get my 'serious reporter" hat on and call a government office and wish to talk with a press relations person, I note that saying "Hi, I'm from UrbanSurvival.com" doesn't seem to carry the same press "weight" as would "Hi, I'm from the Independence Journal..."

So, what would you think about UrbanSurvival changing it's name (but not content) and acting a little more like a newspaper? Maybe even a newspaperly layout, for example - even classified ads...

Please click to vote:
Yes: I would like the name "The Independence Journal" better than UrbanSurvival.

No: UrbanSurvival is a great name - established brand - don't screw with it.

Both: Why not publish BOTH and see what works?
Thanks -