New wooble graphic!!

Via Michael Mandeville!!

EARTH'S WOBBLE - POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles

Links to: ALMANAC | WOBBLE GALLERY | EARTH MONITOR

[3-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: No change from prior weeks. There remains some apparent tendency to truncation of the spiral track on the Y Axis. Movement up and down the X Axis appears slightly easier for the Earth's crust than than movement on the Y Axis. This pattern we have been observing since the wobble "freeze" of January 2005.

[2-18-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: The track now shows some outward expansion as one would expect.

[2-11-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: Polar Motion apparently is now deviating once again from a normal track. What has been a smooth outward expansion since March 2006 is now apparently too truncated to be called an expansionary spiral. It is "retarded" and parallels far too closely the spiral track of 14 months ago. It should be showing progressive enlargement, but this is no longer evident. There are two possible explanations. One is that this Seven Year Wobble Cycle will be smaller than normal (which happens frequently). Another possible explanation is that the Wobble is merely showing us that significant drift in the average location of the center of the wobble has been and is still underway, such that the spiral center is now drifting towards the left bottom of the chart (down towards about Longitude West 70-80). This the Wobble has also done before. A third possibility is that both factors are in play. Stay tuned, the Wobble continues to be more dynamic than anyone previously imagined.

[1-28-08 ECB] POLAR MOTION: As reported January 27 in the "Pivot Point" Bulletin (see Yahoo Archives), the Earth was apparently at tectonic standstill on Saturday/Sunday (almost 0 seismic activity 4+, ultra-low activity in the range of 2.5-4)) while the Earth's tilted axis orientation (fixed on Polaris) began to recede from the orbital Perihelion point and thus begin the shift of the orientations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres toward the Sun. Otherwise, no significant change from previous reports. The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. As can be expected (by looking at the history of the Wobble Track), the Earth's Wobble is currently receiving a boost of energy from the Earth's Perihelion moment with the Sun. Since the Earth is closer to the Sun at this moment, solar gravity is tugging in phase slightly more strongly on the heavy side of the Earth (the Southern Hemisphere). As a result the track of Polar Motion is now clearly showing a marked acceleration in the outward, expansionary movement of its spiral track. This is all normal. The Spin Axis is currently located in the longitude quadrant of the Russian Far East moving rapidly towards Alaska..

[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLE TRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED. Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences. Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.

Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis

Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM

Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size = 0.05 arcseconds
Time Domain as shown in upper right hand corner.
All movement is counter-clockwise.

This chart shows the location of the North Spin Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of the 19^th century. A drift of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this chart. This drift is the primary cause of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity. In order to “parallel” the way in which geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which they are typically drawn in school books. –X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of the Pacific Hemisphere. –Y is shown on the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian Land Mass. X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude West 90, which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).

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Friday, March 7, 2008 -

A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY -
The greatest of faults, I should say, is to be conscious of none.
Thomas Carlyle

QUAKES -
World map of the quakes in the past 7 days.
Quake list.

Largest quakes yesterday -
3/6/08 -
5.4 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 SALTA, ARGENTINA
5.6 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA

WASHINGTON - an unfelt seismic event is taking place beneath western Washington. Earlier in the week, seismographs in the southern Hood Canal area began recording bursts of low-level shaking associated with what is called an episodic tremor-and-slip event. If this episode behaves true to form, the tremor will move north beneath the Olympic Mountains and across to Vancouver Island during the next two to three weeks. This the fifth so-called slow-slip event to be recorded since the phenomenon was discovered in 2002. Slow-slip events, or silent earthquakes, occur at a depth of about 25 miles and can last for several weeks. Though they are unfelt by humans, they can release as much energy as a large earthquake. Since they were first discovered in the Puget Sound region, such events have occurred regularly about every 14 months. The current slow-slip event was expected to start between mid-February and mid-April, and the first evidence that it had begun turned up on Sunday.

KASHMIR - A 3.9 earthquake of mild intensity rocked many parts of Kashmir Valley including the summer capital Srinagar early this morning. There were no reports of any damage to life and property. Even though the quake was of mild intensity, it jolted people out of their beds in panic. Anxiety is palpable here over the UNUSUAL seismic activity in the region for the past few weeks. The quake was the sixth temblor to hit Kashmir valley since February 20. Mild intensity tremors - between 2.9 and 4.1 on the Richter Scale - hit Srinagar on February 20 and 25, while two temblors occurred on March 1, triggering a feeling that the repeated tremors are prelude to a major earthquake. The growing public anxiety forced authorities to issue a statement reiterating that there is no confirmation of a major earthquake in the near future. A high intensity devastating earthquake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale with its epicenter in Muzaffarabad in Pakistani Kashmir on October 8, 2005 caused widespread destruction and resulted in the death of nearly 75,000 people.

VOLCANOES -
HAWAII - The latest flow from Kilauea Volcano reached the ocean overnight Wednesday. Access to Kilauea's eruption was cut off Wednesday after the current lava flow crossed the last Big Island access road to the site. After threatening for several days, lava crossed the access road, cutting off a lava viewing site and forcing the last residents to evacuate. The homes that were in danger were not destroyed by Thursday. "The speed at which she moved from the base to where she is now is much, much faster than anyone, I'm talking about the scientists, anticipated. We are where we thought we would be by maybe next week sometime at the earliest, and here we are." Lava from the volcano eruption that began in 1983 destroyed four or five abandoned structures in Royal Gardens over the past two weeks. (video)

NEW GUINEA - Thermal activity at the Bagiai cone on Karkar Island in Madang is still continuing and is a concern. Thermal activity from within the cone has caused the vegetation to die and turn brown. Withered and dry vegetation could be observed at Bagiai’s flanks. In the meantime, seismic activity in the form of volcanic earthquakes is continuing, but at low levels. Three portable seismic recorders were deployed close to the summit area on the outer caldera, 3.5 km from Bagiai. They recorded 15-20 volcanic earthquakes per day. “Generally, the seismic activity is at a low level and our team on the ground is keeping an eye on it."

MARIANA ISLANDS - Volcanic haze blown to Saipan and Tinian again - The CNMI Emergency Management Office issued a volcanic haze and sulfur advisory late afternoon yesterday, saying that light winds will be carrying gas from Anatahan to Saipan and Tinian. EMO said that residents of Saipan and Tinian should notice a slight sulfur smell and some reduction in visibility due to haze last night until midnight. Those with respiratory problems were advised to stay indoors. “Light north winds are carrying gases and haze from Antahan to our area. The satellite images also shows some ash is being emitted by the volcano but the ash is mainly confined near and just east of the volcano.” All mariners were also reminded to take precautionary measures due to low visibility.

INDONESIANS in Java village scared by seeping gas - Gas seeping from the ground in a village hit by a mud volcano in Indonesia's East Java province is triggering safety concerns and calls for an evacuation. The gas is in an area where thousands of homes and factories have been submerged by hot mud since a mud volcano first started to erupt in May 2006, forcing about 15,000 people to abandon their homes. "Every two or three days, people find gas flares, big and small. In this village you could be burnt anytime unless we are relocated." A villager demonstrated the gas was inflammable by setting alight a leak causing a 20 cm (8 inch) high flame. Mindi villagers mark the spot of new gas leaks by planting a piece of pipe to try and prevent people from setting the flares alight. A spokesman for the government body managing the mudflow said he was aware of the flaring gas, but that Mindi was not a village eligible under a government decree for compensation to pay for an evacuation.

TROPICAL STORMS -
Map.
Projected storm paths .
Cyclone JOKWE was 700 nmi WNW of Saint Pierre, Reunion.
Cyclone OPHELIA was 542 nmi NW of Perth, Australia.

Tropical cyclone Jokwe is expected to lash northern Mozambique tomorrow after sweeping through parts of Madagascar. As of Thursday morning, cyclone Jokwe was clipping the northern tip of Madagascar. It was slowing down over Madagascar, and the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre put its wind speed at 55 knots (100 kilometres an hour), with gusts of 65 knots (120 kilometres an hour). But cyclones intensify over the open ocean, and so as Jokwe moves across the Mozambique Channel, its wind speeds will become faster. As it approaches the Mozambican coast, a wind speed of almost 140 kilometres an hour, and gusts of up to 167 kilometres an hour are forecast. On its current course, the centre of the storm system will make landfall somewhere near the northern port of Nacala on Saturday morning. This is well to the north of the river valleys of central Mozambique that suffered severe flooding in January and February, and so it is unlikely that Jokwe will worsen the situation of the flood victims.

HEAVY RAINS / FLOODING / LANDSLIDES / UNUSUAL & OUT-OF-SEASON WEATHER -
PERU - A landslide in the hills surrounding the village of Caserio Sachavaca, in the Amazonian Huanuco State of Peru, killed seven people on Thursday after heavy rains battered the area. The heavy rainfall also destroyed at least four houses. The severe weather which has swept through the country has already killed 16 people and driven about 1700 people from their homes.

MARYLAND - RECORD RUNOFF discharging at Conowingo Dam - Flood warnings remain in effect in Harford and Cecil counties Thursday as RECORD RAIN and snowmelt in Pennsylvania and New York send high water down the Susquehanna River. Water was rushing through the dam at a rate of 323,000 cubic feet per second. The previous record for a March 6 was 320,000 cf/s in 1979. The average for this date is 70,500 cubic feet per second. The all-time record high flow was 1.13 million cubic feet per second, on June 24, 1972, in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Agnes.

NEW YORK - A new RAINFALL RECORD was set for Albany on Wednesday when 1.74 inches of liquid precipitation fell at the Albany International Airport.

MAINE - February proved to be another RECORD-BREAKING MONTH with precipitation superseding what fell in 1960 by more than half an inch.

ILLINOIS - Mother Nature's whims sent the Rock River to RECORD HIGH LEVELS in the Quad-Cities area Thursday, forcing people from their homes and Rock Island County to declare a state of emergency. At least one ice jam formed late Wednesday or early Thursday, causing the already swollen waterway to rise quickly. Area fire departments scrambled to launch boats to evacuate stranded residents. "We actually had power poles taken down by the ice." Area officials said Thursday that they cannot destroy the jams, and the blockages will have to break up on their own. That means no one can really predict when the flooding will be over and people can return to their homes. The river hit 16.38 feet at Moline at 8:30 a.m. Thursday, breaking a record set in 1973. (photos)

Coal cost soars in supply 'apocalypse' in Australia - Flooding in Queensland's Bowen Basin has resulted in a "supply apocalypse" for coking coal, with contract prices likely to hit $US300 per tonne - three times the price in 2007 - as steel mills scramble for the key ingredient. Flooding in the Bowen Basin has taken about 15 million tonnes of coking coal out of the market, as infrastructure limitations restricts the ability of producers to make up the lost output. "There is now an obvious scramble for supply with industry sources confirming that Asian steel mills are begging for tons at close to any cost." The Bowen Basin is the world's single largest resource of exported high quality coking coal. Tight supply has been exacerbated by China withdrawing from coking coal exports, as internal demand soars and coke stockpiles decline to historically low levels. Prices for coking coal and thermal coal, used as fuel for power stations, may rise by 30 per cent more than forecast this year after the flooding and severe snowstorms in China which have restricted supply.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -
TEXAS - The week's second snowstorm could cover McKinney with twice as much snow as Tuesday's snowfall. The National Weather Service predicted four to six inches of snow would fall on McKinney before midnight Thursday, causing hazardous road conditions, wrecks and city, school and county department closures all afternoon. Such heavy snow accumulation for McKinney is VERY UNUSUAL. "It's really something. It's kind of gotten into an active pattern where we've had some strong weather systems that typically move north of Oklahoma and have been moving from January and February moving across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. Then this past week, this will be the second major storm system that's moved across North Texas." A collection of colder air created the heavy snowfall. "It basically has to do with where the cold air sets up, where the cold air and warm, moist air sets up. It's in a funnel zone, so with the storm track farther south, the colder air is farther south and the colder air is where we get a lot of snow today and tonight and later in the week." The snowfall is heavier than average for the month of March, but isn't enough to break the previous snowfall record for McKinney. Eight to 12 inches of snow fell on McKinney on Jan. 15 and 16, 1964.

EXTREME HEAT / WILDFIRES / DROUGHT / CLIMATE CHANGE-

CHILE - A wildfire near the port city of Valparaiso has destroyed 20 houses and thousands of hectares of pasture, pines and eucalyptus, but so far poses no immediate threat to populated areas. The houses destroyed by the fire in Laguna Verde, some 140 kilometres (87 miles) north-west of Santiago, were summer residences that were not occupied as the fire struck. On Wednesday, 200 people were evacuated as a precaution. The three-day fire had been brought under control on Wednesday, but regained force due to high temperatures and wind. (video)

AUSTRALIA - Adelaide is in the grip of its FIRST AUTUMN HEATWAVE IN ALMOST 70 YEARS. The heatwave will be the longest experienced in March since 1940 when seven days of 35C temperatures were last experienced.

THAILAND - Drought has arrived early this year and it may be a lengthy one as nine northern provinces are already bracing for water shortages.

Warmer waters leave fish floundering - Climate change could be reducing fish numbers by causing them to get lost, Australian scientists have found. The stresses of warmer sea temperatures and more acidic seawater may be affecting the development of ear bones in young reef fish. The stress in their larval stage could make fish develop asymmetrical ear bones or otoliths, causing them to lose their way at sea during a crucial stage of their development. "A degree of asymmetry is natural but when the environment deteriorates, asymmetrical fish become more frequent."

HEALTH THREATS -
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