must read on Georgia-Russia war scenario

9.08.2008

Save the little nation from the annihilation!

Stop the genocide of the Ossetians!

The nationalistic and fascist government of Georgia from the year 1989 support the policy of the annihilation and the impression of the aboriginal Ossetian population from the territory that they occupy. From 1991 as a consequence of repeated military actions that were undertaken by the criminal authorities of Georgia against the small nations and the national purge murdered thousands of people –Ossetians, Abkhazians, Armenians, Russians. At the same time the scale of the genocide passed over the silence by mass media. The atrocity of the Georgian fascists, the tortures surpassed the one of the German fascists during the World War II.

The Georgian nation is sick, the ideas of the national oneness, justifying the territorial claims are warmed up by the Georgian mass media. The government of Georgia is financed by the USA, having it's own geopolitical interests in the region. Now the tragedy is developed, the Ossetian people are systematically shot in own houses, perish under blockages of the destroyed houses. The Georgian fascists have destroyed, have wiped about Ossetian villages, the city of Tskhinval is in ruins. It's impossible to count up the quantity of victims, that were buried under blockages of the houses destroyed by fire of the Georgian aggressors, the account goes on thousand. Groans of people from under blockages are audible. The Republic hospital where had helped to the wounded man was destroyed by the Georgian artillery, under blockages were wounded men and medical workers who could not be released under heavy fire of the opponent. Thus the Georgian party cynically declares the constitutional order prompting, one for another offers insinuations to accuse the Russian or Ossetian parts in the conflict. The people of Abkhazia will be the following victims of the Georgian extremism. We ask for the help, solidarity, and if it is possible with an exit on the international sites. Let the world knows the truth, instead of presented by the Georgian masters of falsifications lie.

IА “Рес”

. . . »»»

Inal Pliev: "It's necessary to suppress emphatically these volley plants, the armor-piercing techniques and all those instruments of murder that shoot at the peace town" At this moment the massed, intense, extremely cruel shelling of the housing estate of Tskhinval from the howitzers, mortars, artillery, IFV, tanks with using the system of the volley fire "Grad" from the direction of the Georgian villages continues. The bombardment goes on with the persistent volleys with the intervals under one second. This information was supplemented with the chief of the information department of the South Ossetian part of the Control Committee Inal Pliev. Here is the entire text. There are the hits to the houses that are situated in the immediate region of the boundary. There is fire and smoke around of us. Continues the intimidation and the oppression of the peaceful population. I suppose that the number of the victims will increase badly. But I have no idea about the number of victims, because we are in the shelters. Just now Saakashvily have declared by the radio that "gained a victory over the Russian Federation and Georgian troops are in the zone of the conflict and control Tskhinval totally and the Ossetian separatists will be obliterated". He also made the number of victims of the Ossetian part public (1500 persons). "I don't fight against the peaceful population, but with the gangsters". But in such a small nation can't exist 1500 gangsters. It's obviously that it is done to receive any political dividends. This war don't directed at the political victory, it is directed at total destruction of the peaceful nation. Now it is known that in the villages that have been occupied and that are released now the Georgians have taken away the Ossetian hostages. On the side of Georgia fight the international terrorists that had taken part in the war in Chechnya. It's especially discomposedly that the Georgian part hide the huge number of hostages from the Ossetian villages. This signify that they will be meanly killed as it was done earlier during the previous conflicts. I think that it was wise of Russia to provide safety of civilian population, by talking with the Georgians their native war language. The Russian collaboration is not enough, because the Georgians used heavy artillery against Tskhinval yesterday and today too. It`s necessary to destroy that artillery, because our people are dying, owr town is practically broken to pieses, otherwise South Osetia will be totally destroyed. Inal Pliev, the chief of the information department of the South Ossetian part of the Control Committee. . . . »»»

People of the Republic of South Ossetia apply for the government of the Russian Federation and for the people of Russia! The International Community that has been hypnotized with the crying misinformation of the government of Georgia and the cynical insinuations of Saakashvily doesn't undertake any measures to cut off the military actions of the Georgian part. On the contrary, they make different attempts to deprive the people of the South Ossetia of the peacemaking support and, in that way, doom them to the absolute destruction with the Georgian fascists. Meanwhile, the Georgian nationalists achieve their aims annihilating nearly one and a half thousand people of the South Ossetia and depriving the roofs and making the potential refugees the others. The irrepressible national ambitions and the territorial pretensions are warm up with the Georgian mass media, the supporting of the USA – the world-wide predominant force that has it's own interests in the region. When in April of 1989 in Tbilisi in the result of the dispersal of the unapproved antistate and nationalistic meeting perished 20 Georgian women, the Georgian part demonstrated the national hysteria with the involving of the universal mass media. Though, there is the data that those events also were the skilled insinuation of the Georgian "masters of the theatrical genre". And now, when thousands of people die, the Georgian nation triumphs, approving of the actions of their fascist government. The West is deaf. To live as a part of the fascist state is impossible. We ask for the juridical and legal help for recognizing the independence of the South Ossetia. And we ask for the help in the reducing the truth about the tragedy to the International Community, the RF and the common people. Читать на русском . . . »»»

Tskhinval is under the most frightful fire Innocent Ossetian civilians and Russian citizens killed: exact numbers cannot be established A massive and intensive shelling of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinval continues today as the city endures it's the worst attacks so far in the upsurge of violence in the Caucasus. While much of the civilian population in the capital are sheltering in their houses, many cannot take refuge from the bombs as their homes have been destroyed. There are still many women, children and elderly residents remaining in the city and, according to the latest information available, the city continues to resist the incursion of Georgian troops and has still not been captured. Georgian armed formations and heavy artillery have been accused of doing everything in their power to raze Ossetia with no regard to the safety of the civilian population. читать на русском . . . »»»

8.08.2008 - 11:52 Georgian SU-25 planes dropped bombs on civilians. In these minutes Georgian SU-25 planes dropped bombs on the peaceful citizens of the Republic of South Ossetia. SU-25 also strikes at ossetian village Kvernet, and bypass road,Zar, the only road, which links South Ossetia with the North. Perfidious massive bombardment of Tskhinval by the morning became more intense. In the city and its environs are fighting with heavy weapons. The people of South Ossetia requests assistance from the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev and the Government of Russian Federation to take urgent measures to protect the residents of South Ossetia, which are citizens of the Russian Federation and to do everything to stop the genocide of the Ossetian people. According to preliminary data, in the city killed more than 15 civilians. The Georgian convoy of tanks and infantry is moving towards Tshinval. Already devastated a large part of the town. Several buildings in the center of the city burn. Parliament House RYUO burned, the government buildings complex is damaged. High-rise housing and other residential buildings are burning. Читать на русском . . . »»»

Eduard Kokoity: «Situation is extremely deteriorated by the Georgian side» South Ossetia intended to take resolute measures on the facts of shelling of Ossetian settlements by the Georgian side. This was stated by the President of the Republic of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity. «Presently the situation is very serious. At the height above Nuli village Georgians are constructing another post. We will take most tough decisions in this regard, for this are band formations and they are shelling our villages. The situation is aggravating from the Georgian side»-claimed Eduard Kokoity. . . . »»»

Georgian militaries fired funeral procession Georgian armed formations fired the funeral procession in Mugut village, Znaur region of RSO. As the Minister of Interior informed IA «Res» correspondent there was a funeral of RSO law enforcement organs serviceman Anatoly Kabisov killed during the firing of RSO MIA post in Velit village on the night from 1 to 2 August. . . . »»»

Georgian militaries fired funeral procession Georgian armed formations fired the funeral procession in Mugut village, Znaur region of RSO. As the Minister of Interior informed IA «Res» correspondent there was a funeral of RSO law enforcement organs serviceman Anatoly Kabisov killed during the firing of RSO MIA post in Velit village on the night from 1 to 2 August. . . . »»»

4.08.2008 - 17:09

Eduard Kokoity: «It is a meanness to shoot innocent people with sniper weapons, to hide behind the churches and to build fortifications at the cemeteries»

The President of the Republic of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity received the delegation from North Ossetia. They discussed the situation created over South Ossetia last days. All the participants mentioned the complexity of situation. Eduard Kokoity emphasized that the people should not yield to the provocations organized by the Georgian side, whatever tragic and grave as it may be.

. . . »»»

MEDVEDEV provides Russian update (Pravda)

Dmitry Medvedev opens his heart to the West in Germany

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev delivered an extensive speech to German politicians and businessman during his visit to Germany. It became Medvedev’s first landmark public appearance of international significance. The speech clearly showed which problems the new Russian president considered as vital.

	Dmitry Medvedev opens his heart to the West in Germany
	BREAKING NEWS Ukraine angers Russia with its intention to join NATO Former Soviet republics ignore Putin's Russia Relations between Russia and USA get into Cold War spirit again
	Hollywood stars and their bikinis More...

One of the most talked-about subjects – the deployment of the US missile system in Eastern Europe and the expansion of NATO – became one of the most important aspects in Medvedev’s speech.

According to Medvedev, Russia offers not to speed up the expansion of NATO and the deployment of the US missile defense system in Europe.

“Everyone needs to show restraint not to aggravate the situation on any issue. One needs to break the vicious circle of single-handed actions and reactions to those actions. One has to turn down the attempts of speeding events up and to run the policy of facts that have already taken place. It would be good to take a break and look around to see where we have found ourselves and where are going, whether it goes about Kosovo, the expansion of NATO or the missile defense issue,” Dmitry Medvedev said in Berlin, Interfax reports.

“It is very indicative that discrepancies with Russia are interpreted by many in the West from the point of view of the need to pull Russia’s stance to that of the West. We do not need to be hugged. We are seeking after truly equal relations and nothing more,” Medvedev said.

“Some simply tell us: stop being so spiky and obstinate in international affairs, the problems of the democratic development and observation of human rights – these are all derivatives and we will turn a blind eye on them. They cite other countries as an example, with which they act exactly like that. That suits those countries. I would like to say that that does not suit us because we consider human rights to be a basic fundamental value, which must not be traded for anything. We are open to a composed, honest and reciprocal dialogue on any subjects,” the president emphasized.

Medvedev also urged not to put obstacles on the way for the OSCE to become a full-fledged regional organization. “It seems that it is the OSCE that should make the newly revived unity of the European civilization. However, they do not allow that. They do not let the OSCE develop into a full-fledged regional structure,” the president said.

“Other structures, which are programmed to reproduce the bloc type of policy, put obstacles on the OSCE’s way. NATO does not seem to be able to find the new point of its existence. They believe that their new mission is global, that is why they are acting to the detriment of the UN Security Council’s prerogatives, attracting new members,” Medvedev said.

“I am certain that Atlantism as the only principle has become obsolete. The unity of the entire European-Atlantic space from Vancouver to Vladivostok has become much more important nowadays,” Medvedev said.

Dmitry Medvedev hopes that Russia will come to a new agreement with the European Union during the forthcoming Russia-EU summit.

“We are definitely interested in maintaining stable relations with the Europeans community. We can’t do without each other, we have one single European home, we have similar historical values and similar problems. The fact that we are moving closer to the new agreement on cooperation and partnership with the European community is extremely important for us,” Medvedev stated.

Speaking about the development of democracy in Russia, Dmitry Medvedev said that the West still had a misconception of the Russian democracy.

“The perfection of the political system and the development of the institutes of the civil society is of paramount importance for us,”

the president said.

“I totally agree that the freedom of mass media needs to be protected. It was necessary several years ago, when private companies were enslaving the media. Now we need to protect the media against the administrative machine on different levels,” Medvedev said.

At the same time, Medvedev said that the world had approached the point of the absolute freedom of mass media owing to the technological progress, Internet technologies in particular.

“This situation highlights not only the idea of freedom of speech, since up-to-date digital technologies have already guaranteed this freedom. It highlights the problem of preserving moral and cultural values in this environment,” he said. “ Television can be both state and private - run . But it has to be truthful, although I am sure that there will be no difference left between a personal computer and a TV set in five years,” he said.

“In this case any country, whether it is Russia or Germany, will not have to pay first priority to the questions of regulating activities of television companies, or licensing and taxing their activities. One will have to pay prime attention to question of content – what is distributed in the global media environment and how,” Medvedev said.

Medvedev promised that all cases of violence against journalists in Russia would be investigated. The president pointed out that severe incidents, with even fatal outcomes occur not only in Russia.

“I will not be talking about the problems of other countries. Every leader must be responsible for their deeds. I can only say that all incidents connected with violence to life and person of journalists in Russia will be investigated and completed,” Medvedev said.

Speaking of non-governmental organizations, Medvedev said that Russia has been increasing its own support of the national civil society. “The support of non-governmental organizations is one of our priorities. They used to be funded from abroad right before 2006. I do not think that any developed Western country would accept external investments in its third sector. That is why we decided to allocate our own funds to support the Russian civil structures,” Medvedev said.

AP photo

Source: agencies

Sakahlian watch - NONenvironmental Russia plans $5 billion dollar investment

Found in the Vancouver Sun - just what the planet does not need -

Putin's plan to host APEC coming apart at the seams

Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun

Russia's president-in-waiting Dmitry Medvedev came close to losing his cool a few days ago as he listened to a seemingly endless catalogue of excuses for why preparations to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum in 2012 are behind schedule.

Russky Island, a 98-square-kilometre outcrop of evil reputation in the Sea of Japan several kilometers offshore from Russia's Pacific port of Vladivostok, has been hand-picked by President Vladimir Putin as the site for the 25-nation APEC leaders summit.

Putin has a vision of turning the island, until recently a secret military facility, into a massive resort complex whose construction, together with the international attention of the APEC summit, will help spark investment in and development of the entire Russian Far East.

Moscow sees this as an urgent issue as neighbouring and booming China takes an ever-increasing interest in the region's massive reserves of natural resources. Illegal Chinese immigration to the Russian Far East and cross-border smuggling are almost out of control.

So the Putin government has earmarked about $5 billion for investment in various infrastructure and construction projects focused on the APEC summit, but which will also bring long-term benefit to this neglected region.

But getting the various bureaucrats and state-owned companies involved to attack the agenda with the same sense of purpose felt by Putin has not been easy.

Thus it was that Medvedev, currently first deputy prime minister but sure to be elected president in two weeks time, was dispatched to the regional city of Khabarovsk to knock heads.

And there are plenty of heads that need knocking, from a Moscow point of view. The local daily newspaper commented that "it seemed at times that Medvedev was on the verge of losing his patience."

Another newspaper report tells of Medvedev trying to get some explanation from a local bureaucrat and a representative of the state-owned pipeline construction company Transneft about the progress of a pipeline from the Baikal oil and gas producing region to Kazmino near Vladivostok. The line is only 46-per-cent complete when 67 per cent of the project should have been finished by this time.

Medvedev was not impressed when the officials mumbled on about the need for various appraisals.

"This project is crucial for the Far East," Medvedev interjected. "All this talk about why and where and what's happening to the paperwork is just pathetic."

Medvedev's patience was tested equally on the question of delays in reaching an agreement to build a natural gas pipeline to Vladivostok from production facilities on Sakhalin Island off Russia's Pacific coast.

A test of wills is going on between two huge Russian state-controlled operations, the GazProm energy company and the Rosneft oil company.

At issue is whether the pipeline and gas should come from GazProm's Sakhalin-2 project or from the Sakhalin-1 site in which Rosneft has a 20-per-cent share with principal owner ExxonMobil.

What is clear is that neither GazProm nor Rosneft are keen to shoulder the task of getting gas to Vladivostok, certain they will lose money on the deal. They have been taking every opportunity to delay making a joint-venture agreement.

Medvedev's irritation was evident when he told them "get on with completing your negotiations. Agree a commercial solution -- and build."

And despite Putin's declaration that he wants to see Russky island as the site of the 2012 APEC summit, it remains uncertain that this will be possible or, indeed, sensible.

Moscow has its own share of guilt in this. The island is still owned by the ministry of defence and arrangements have yet to be made to transfer title to Vladivostok so APEC construction projects can start.

And there are reports that people living on the island -- it's unclear exactly how many there are -- are not at all happy about the APEC-associated development.

They say the island already has a serious litter problem because of visitors from Vladivostok. They expect this problem will increase once the planned bridge to the island is built and they fear being evicted to make way for APEC projects.

But the bridge appears to be a big concern. It is noticeable in local newspaper reports that both Putin and Medvedev have been unable to get straight answers from local officials about whether a bridge to Russky Island can be built in time or is feasible at all.

Reports have begun to de-emphasize the island and stress that it is Vladivostok that is hosting APEC, so it may be that the Russky islanders will be left in happy seclusion.

jmanthorpe@png.canwest.com

Read Jonathan Manthorpe's blog at http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/dispatches/default. asp

hmm. Upset poles set to drive a harder bargain over US missile shield

Upset Poles set to drive a harder bargain over US missile shield

Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing

The new message from Poland is that it is going to extract a high price for agreeing to host the controversial US missile shield — and it may delay its decision until it knows the name of the next American president.

The past four days have brought a rash of comments from Donald Tusk’s new Government that it is more wary of the US than its predecessor and in no mood to treat the missile shield as a done deal. They reveal how much Poland feels underappreciated by the US, not least over Iraq. Warsaw has a point that the US took for granted the enthusiasm for things American in Central and Eastern Europe after the Soviet Union fell apart.

All this is trouble, in a small way, for the US, although Poland has signalled that it will be mollified for the right price. But the bracing new talk from Warsaw points to the bigger problem of Russia, quickly becoming the common factor in apparently separate problems for the US abroad.

The shift in mood is partly a change of government. The conservative Kaczynski twins, Lech and Jaroslaw, who as President and Prime Minister brought an unpredictable surliness to two years of foreign policy, were by reflex prickly towards the European Union, hostile towards Russia and adoring towards the US. They had agreed in principle to host the shield but not signed the deal. The shield, which the US says will protect itself and its allies from missiles from Iran and North Korea, requires ten interceptor missile bases in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic.

Bogdan Kilch, the Polish Defence Minister, for the first time set out yesterday at least part of the price that Poland will demand: an extensive (and expensive) overhaul of its air defences, probably by adding Patriot and THAAD rockets. Kilch, who will meet Robert Gates, his US counterpart, in Washington on Monday, said that Poland’s final decision would depend only on the “national interest”.

Tusk will meet Mirek Topolánek, his Czech counterpart, today to talk about the shield. Russia and Poland will have their first direct talks about it this month. In comments published on Monday, Tusk said that Poland “definitely shouldn’t hurry” in its decision, adding: “Remember, the shield is supposed to defend America, not Poland.”

At the weekend Radek Sikorski, the Foreign Minister, in a signal that Poland may wait until next year, said: “The worst scenario is a situation in which Poland would agree to the shield, will incur the political costs and then the base is not built because of a change of government in the US.”

It is clear that Tusk, for all his deliberate amiability, is prepared to overturn Poland’s close relationship with the US if he cannot garner rewards. The project is vulnerable to the public sense of grievance that Poland did not get the privileged partnership it expected from the US in return for sending soldiers to Iraq. In his inaugural speech Tusk said that he would pull Poland’s 900 troops out of Iraq by the end of this year, although he would send more to Afghanistan to demonstrate commitment to Nato.

Public expectations of a relationship were fanned very high by its advocates, saying that Poland would be “a second Israel” or “a US aircraft carrier sailing on Eastern European waters”. But Russia is the beneficiary of the sense of disappointment and Tusk has caught the public mood in talking of “normalising relations” with Moscow.

Even though hard bargaining was inevitable when plans for the missile shield got real, the US should not neglect the dissatisfaction that drives it.

Comment:

I ronically giving the Poles what they want would probably fuel the Russians' paranoia over this shield. All this for a shield that may not even work. . .

Michael, Pueblo, Colorado, US

Russia to set up missile shield for Iran Plus this on Japan

Think that there isn't a new nuclear arms RACE?

Dig these stories!! The second is from a "conservative" point of view; you can tell by the rhetoric anyway.

Veeger



Russia to set up missile shield for Iran Vladimir Radyuhin

MOSCOW: Russia will set up a massive anti-missile shield in Iran that will virtually guarantee the country against military attacks.

Moscow will supply Tehran with the advanced long-range S-300 surface-to-air missile complexes, informed Russian sources said.

“Several dozen S-300PMU-1 complexes will be delivered to Iran under a contract signed several years ago,” the Interfax news agency quoted a defence industry source as saying on Wednesday. He said deliveries could start as early as next year.

Another Russian defence source told the Kommersant daily that Moscow was planning to sell Iran five batteries of S-300 launchers at a price of $800 million. A typical S-300PMU-1 battery contains 48 missiles on 12 mobile launchers.

<<:>> <<:>> <<:>>

The Pacific Arms Race

by Robert Maginnis

Posted: 01/04/2008

Just a few weeks ago, Japan successfully intercepted a ballistic missile over the Pacific Ocean. Facing a rising China -- which had, before the Japanese test, conducted its unparalleled military buildup as a one-nation arms race -- Japan has now moved decisively to defend itself. But the Japanese move may now accelerate, and engage other neighboring nations in a growing and dangerous Pacific hemisphere arms race.

At least 31 nations possess ballistic missiles and to counter that growing threat nations like Japan are scurrying to build anti-missile shields. However, more and better missile shields create a Hobson’s choice for nations that depend on their missile arsenals for strategic deterrence. They must either build larger and more sophisticated -- read expensive -- missile fleets or abandon missiles for other ways to deter would-be adversaries.

On December 17, the Japanese Self-Defense Force’s JS Kongo (DDG-173), a guided missile destroyer, fired a US Standard SM-3 interceptor which quickly destroyed its ballistic missile target about 100 miles above the Hawaiian Islands. The US Missile Defense Agency called the intercept a “major milestone” and Japan’s defense minister called the test “extremely significant.”

Japan’s ballistic missile defense (BMD) program started in August 1998 after North Korea fired a missile over Japan. Tokyo’s BMD efforts were accelerated in July 2005 after North Korea once again fired ballistic missiles toward Japan and in October 2006 when Pyongyang tested a plutonium-based atomic device. Japan views these actions as a direct threat to her survival.

"The land of the Rising Sun” responded to Pyongyang’s threat by pouring billions of yen into missile defense. The Japanese have purchased US-Aegis radar systems, launched spy satellites, and allowed the US to station an X-band radar on the island. Tokyo has deployed 27 anti-missile US-made Patriot PAC-2 batteries and this year it began deploying the more capable Patriot PAC-3. Much more is in the works.

More daunting for Japan’s neighbors is the fact that Tokyo’s BMD investments are linked to the US missile defense system. In the Pacific the US boasts more than 20 ground-based interceptors, 18 sea-based missiles, hundreds of PAC-3 Patriots and intends to create a multilayered system with hundreds of interceptors to include other programs like the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Airborne Laser (ABL). These systems are guided by early warning satellites, radar complexes and more than a dozen Aegis-equipped cruisers and destroyers.

The growing US-Japanese missile shield seriously diminishes North Korea’s fledgling missile threat and the second order effect is to marginalize China’s strategic balance and perhaps even Russia’s.

Pyongyang is believed to have more than 800 ballistic missiles, including a few which could potentially strike the US homeland. Most are old Soviet-era Scuds and the communist state has developed a medium-range missile, the Nodong, and a long-range missile based on Scud technology, the Taepodong.

North Korea sells ballistic missiles to nations like Iran, Syria, and Pakistan. It also tests missiles and shakes its nuclear weapons program rattle to create regional tension that is used to leverage blackmail payments of food and fuel oil in exchange for empty disarmament promises. Although soon to be deterred, it is unlikely Japan’s missile shield will persuade Pyongyang to abandon its misguided activities.

China’s reaction to Japan’s test was cautious. “We hope the Japanese side will act in ways that help to safeguard regional peace and stability and that promote mutual trust between its nations in the area,” Qin Gang, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman.

Beijing’s primary “regional peace” concern is Taiwan. The communist regime wants the break-away island nation back under its iron fist and intends to make that happen either by diplomatic coercion or military force.

The Peoples Liberation Army has arrayed an impressive armada of short-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan. Should China exercise the military option then Japan’s BMD linked with the US’s fleet of Aegis cruisers could make that operation very expensive for the communists.

Beijing’s “stability” concern is that Japan’s BMD impacts the credibility of its small intercontinental ballistic missile fleet. The Red Chinese have 20 nuclear-tipped, silo-based, liquid-fueled CSS-4 ICBMs which puts China at the bottom of the major-power table behind France.

China is rebuilding credibility by modernizing its ICMB fleet, however. By 2010, Beijing will add the DF-31 ICBM which is a road-mobile, solid-propellant system and the JL-2, a submarine launched ballistic missile. These strategic weapons will be augmented by new spy satellites, anti-spacecraft lasers and “information warfare units” that can attack western technologies.

China has launched its own missile shield project as well. Beijing recently tested an interceptor missile that downed a high-flying reconnaissance plane. Its spokesman claims, “We can intercept not only high-flying reconnaissance planes or missiles but also low-flying targets.”

Russia, both a European and Asian country, is impacted by BMD programs on both flanks. President Vladimir Putin objects to a proposed US BMD system in Poland and the Czech Republic which is intended to defend against Iranian missiles much like Japan’s BMD is designed to counter North Korea. But Putin and his generals claim the anti-Iran BMD is really intended to marginalize Russia’s fleet of nuclear missiles. In October, Japan officially rebuffed Russian calls for Tokyo to abandon its BMD as well.

Russia possesses 700 ICBMs and 3,000 nuclear warheads which could quickly overwhelm the combined anti-missile capabilities of the proposed anti-Iranian system, Japan’s emerging shield and the US’ BMD network. Likely, Russia is concerned these shields will eventually be fine-tuned and expanded to deter its vast arsenal.

Russia is doing more than complaining about anti-missile shields, however. It is building better missiles, warheads and beefing up its anti-missile shield.

In mid-December, a Russian submarine in the Barents Sea test-fired a new ballistic missile which reportedly can elude anti-missile systems. The Kremlin will be ready in January 2008 to operationally deploy a new multiple-warhead missile system equipped with Topol-M multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles. This mobile missile can reach the US with a variety of weapons packages.

In August, Colonel General Alexander Zelin, commander of the Russian air force, announced activation of the first S-400 interceptors as part of Moscow’s improved missile defense. The S-400 reportedly can reach out 250 miles and stop missiles with ranges greater than 2,000 miles.

Japan’s missile shield may not be directly responsible for China’s or Russia’s decision to expand missile arsenals and BMD systems. Whatever the reason, these nations and others are investing in more sophisticated missiles that could ratchet-up global tension and further proliferation of ballistic missiles to other states and non-state actors.

Then again the presence of missile shields in places like Japan might convince rogues that the days of ballistic blackmail are over. For larger countries like Russia and China, effective western BMD systems might convince them to see the futility of investing in another bottomless arms race. Let’s hope for the later.

---

Mr. Maginnis is a retired Army lieutenant colonel, a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television and a senior strategist with the U.S. Army.